Evolution of HIV virulence in response to disease-modifying vaccines: A modeling study.

Pathogens face a tradeoff with respect to virulence; while more virulent strains often have higher per-contact transmission rates, they are also more likely to kill their hosts earlier. Because virulence is a heritable trait, there is concern that a disease-modifying vaccine, which reduces the disease severity of an infected vaccinee without changing the underlying pathogen genotype, may result in the evolution of higher pathogen virulence. We explored the potential for such virulence evolution with a disease-modifying HIV-1 vaccine in an agent-based stochastic epidemic model of HIV in United States men who have sex with men (MSM).

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness.

Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men.

HIV set point viral load (SPVL), the viral load established shortly after initial infection, is a proxy for HIV virulence: higher SPVLs lead to higher risk of transmission and faster disease progression. Three models of test-and-treat scenarios, mainly in heterosexual populations, found that increasing treatment coverage selected for more virulent viruses. We modeled virulence evolution in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) with increasing test-and-treat coverage.

HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.

Background: Development of an HIV vaccine might be essential to ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic. However, vaccines can result in the emergence and spread of vaccine-resistant strains. Indeed, analyses of breakthrough infections in the HIV phase 3 vaccine trial RV144 identified HIV genotypes with differential rates of transmission in vaccine and placebo recipients.

β-Zone Parapapillary Atrophy and Rates of Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression: African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study.

Importance: β-zone parapapillary atrophy (βPPA) has been reported as a risk factor for glaucoma onset and progression. Previous studies have shown that the prevalence of βPPA differs between individuals of African descent (AD) and European descent (ED).

Objective: To test whether the association between the presence and progression of βPPA vs visual field progression of glaucoma differs between these 2 ancestry groups.

Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study.

There are global increases in the use of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), guided by clinical benefits of early ART initiation and the efficacy of treatment as prevention of transmission. Separately, it has been shown theoretically and empirically that HIV virulence can evolve over time; observed virulence levels may reflect an adaptive balance between infected lifespan and per-contact transmission rate. However, the potential effects of widespread ART usage on HIV virulence are unknown.

Abundance and recruitment data for Undaria pinnatifida in Brest harbour, France: Model versus field results.

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "A modelling approach to explore the critical environmental parameters influencing the growth and establishment of the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida in Europe" [1]. This article describes raw simulation data output from a novel individual-based model of the invasive kelp species Undaria pinnatifida. It also includes field data of monthly abundance and recruitment values for a population of invasive U.

A modelling approach to explore the critical environmental parameters influencing the growth and establishment of the invasive seaweed Undaria pinnatifida in Europe.

A key factor to determine the expansion dynamics and future distribution of non-native species is their physiological response to abiotic factors and their changes over time. For this study we developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of population growth to represent the complex population dynamics of invasive marine macroalgae with heteromorphic biphasic life cycles. The model framework represents this complex life cycle by treating the individual developmental stages (gametophytes/sporophytes) as autonomous agents with unique behaviour/growth parameters.

A Simple Flight Mill for the Study of Tethered Flight in Insects.

Flight in insects can be long-range migratory flights, intermediate-range dispersal flights, or short-range host-seeking flights. Previous studies have shown that flight mills are valuable tools for the experimental study of insect flight behavior, allowing researchers to examine how factors such as age, host plants, or population source can influence an insects' propensity to disperse. Flight mills allow researchers to measure components of flight such as speed and distance flown.

A theoretical analysis of the Allee effect in wind-pollinated cordgrass plant invasions.

A new individual-based model is presented for investigating an important group of invasive plant species, from the genus Spartina, that threaten biodiversity in coastal and intertidal habitats around the world. The role of pollen limitation in influencing the early development of an invasion is explored in order to gain a greater understanding of the mechanistic basis for an apparent Allee effect (causal relationship between population size/density and mean individual fitness) observed in populations of invasive Spartina species. The model is used to explore how various factors such as atmospheric stability, wind direction/speed, pollen characteristics and spatial structure of the population affect the overall invasion dynamics and reproductive success.

A theoretical analysis of the prodrug delivery system for treating antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Simulations were carried out to analyze a promising new antimicrobial treatment strategy for targeting antibiotic-resistant bacteria called the β-lactamase-dependent prodrug delivery system. In this system, the antibacterial drugs are delivered as inactive precursors that only become activated after contact with an enzyme characteristic of many species of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (β-lactamase enzyme). The addition of an activation step contributes an extra layer of complexity to the system that can lead to unexpected emergent behavior.

A computational model of antibiotic-resistance mechanisms in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).

An agent-based model of bacteria-antibiotic interactions has been developed that incorporates the antibiotic-resistance mechanisms of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The model, called the Micro-Gen Bacterial Simulator, uses information about the cell biology of bacteria to produce global information about population growth in different environmental conditions. It facilitates a detailed systems-level investigation of the dynamics involved in bacteria-antibiotic interactions and a means to relate this information to traditional high-level properties such as the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic.

DOE/NETL's phase II mercury control technology field testing program: preliminary economic analysis of activated carbon injection.

Based on results of field testing conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL), this article provides preliminary costs for mercury control via conventional activated carbon injection (ACI), brominated ACI, and conventional ACI coupled with the application of a sorbent enhancement additive (SEA) to coal prior to combustion.