Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
December 2021
Short-term forecasts of traditional streams from public health reporting (such as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) are a key input to public health decision-making during a pandemic. Since early 2020, our research group has worked with data partners to collect, curate, and make publicly available numerous real-time COVID-19 indicators, providing multiple views of pandemic activity in the United States. This paper studies the utility of five such indicators-derived from deidentified medical insurance claims, self-reported symptoms from online surveys, and COVID-related Google search activity-from a forecasting perspective.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe COVID-19 pandemic presented enormous data challenges in the United States. Policy makers, epidemiological modelers, and health researchers all require up-to-date data on the pandemic and relevant public behavior, ideally at fine spatial and temporal resolution. The COVIDcast API is our attempt to fill this need: Operational since April 2020, it provides open access to both traditional public health surveillance signals (cases, deaths, and hospitalizations) and many auxiliary indicators of COVID-19 activity, such as signals extracted from deidentified medical claims data, massive online surveys, cell phone mobility data, and internet search trends.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe fused lasso, also known as total-variation denoising, is a locally adaptive function estimator over a regular grid of design points. In this article, we extend the fused lasso to settings in which the points do not occur on a regular grid, leading to a method for nonparametric regression. This approach, which we call the [Formula: see text]-nearest-neighbours fused lasso, involves computing the [Formula: see text]-nearest-neighbours graph of the design points and then performing the fused lasso over this graph.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIntroduction: Despite apparently complete surgical resection, approximately half of resected early-stage lung cancer patients relapse and die of their disease. Adjuvant chemotherapy reduces this risk by only 5% to 8%. Thus, there is a need for better identifying who benefits from adjuvant therapy, the drivers of relapse, and novel targets in this setting.
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