Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool.

Case-control study to estimate odds of death within 28 days of positive test for SARS-CoV-2 prior to vaccination for residents of long-term care facilities in England, 2020-2021.

Background: Persons living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are presumed to be at higher risk of adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to increasing age and frailty, but the magnitude of increased risk is not well quantified.

Methods: After linking demographic and mortality data for cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and January 2021 in England, a random sample of 6000 persons who died and 36 000 who did not die within 28 days of a positive test was obtained from the dataset of 3 020 800 patients. Based on an address-matching process, the residence type of each case was categorised into one of private home and residential or nursing LTCF.

Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated.

The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I).

Can syndromic surveillance help forecast winter hospital bed pressures in England?

Background: Health care planners need to predict demand for hospital beds to avoid deterioration in health care. Seasonal demand can be affected by respiratory illnesses which in England are monitored using syndromic surveillance systems. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between syndromic data and daily emergency hospital admissions.

Challenges of investigating a large food-borne norovirus outbreak across all branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom, October 2016.

During October and November 2016, over 1,000 customers and staff reported gastroenteritis after eating at all 23 branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom. The outbreak coincided with a new menu launch and norovirus was identified as the causative agent. We conducted four retrospective cohort studies; one among all restaurant staff and three in customers at four branches.

Detection in the United Kingdom of the FC428 clone, with ceftriaxone resistance and intermediate resistance to azithromycin, October to December 2018.

We describe detection in the United Kingdom (UK) of the drug-resistant FC428 clone, with ceftriaxone resistance and intermediate azithromycin resistance. Two female patients developed infection following contact with UK-resident men from the same sexual network linked to travel to Ibiza, Spain. One case failed treatment with ceftriaxone, and azithromycin and gentamicin, before successful treatment with ertapenem.

An unusual outbreak of norovirus associated with a Halloween-themed swimming pool party in England, 2016.

In October 2016, an outbreak of norovirus occurred among attendees of a Halloween-themed party at a public swimming pool in the south-east of England. Norovirus genogroup II was confirmed in 11 cases. In the retrospective cohort study of pool users, 68 individuals (37 female and 31 male), with a median age of 11 years (range: 0-50 years), met the case definition of developing diarrhoea or vomiting between 6 and 72 h after the pool visit.

Evaluation of equity in diabetes health care in relation to African and Caribbean ethnicity.

Objective: Many US studies have shown that ethnic minority groups have less access to health care. We evaluated whether black African and black Caribbean people with diabetes in the UK gain access to diabetes health care on an equitable basis compared with white people.

Design: Cross-sectional questionnaire survey set in 29 general practices in south London.

Beware the BCG failures: a review of one institution's results.

Objective: To review the outcome of all superficial transitional cell (TCC) bladder cancer treated with intravesical Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) at one institution and, in particular, the prognosis for those patients who gained little benefit from BCG therapy.

Patients And Methods: The notes of 122 patients treated with BCG over a nine-year period were reviewed. The following details were recorded: time of diagnosis; time of decision to treat with BCG; results of cystoscopies before and after BCG; duration of follow up; time of progression if occurred, mortality and cause of death.