Clinical judgment analysis of the parameters used by consultant urologists in the management of prostate cancer.

Purpose: We assessed which clinical parameters consultant urologists use to recommend treatment for early prostate cancer.

Materials And Methods: A total of 30 consultant urologists reviewed 70 paper representations of patients with prostate cancer. Each contained 7 commonly available cues, including prostate specific antigen, Gleason grade, rectal examination, magnetic resonance imaging/laparoscopic stage, medical history, patient choice and age, in addition to 2 cues not yet routinely available, that is predicted life expectancy and 10-year survival probability, as calculated using actuarial formulas based on noncancer comorbidity.

The assessment of patient life-expectancy: how accurate are urologists and oncologists?

Objective: To assess the degree of accuracy, precision and consistency with which consultant urologists, oncologists and junior doctors predict a patient's 10-year life-expectancy.

Subjects And Methods: Eighteen doctors of varying seniority independently examined 70 patient case scenarios containing detailed medical histories; 13 of these cases were duplicate scenarios. Bland-Altman analyses were used to compare doctors' estimates of the probability of each hypothetical patient surviving 10 years with that calculated using actuarial methods.