Estimating probability terms for the background presence of glass when considering activity in forensic casework.

Coulson et al. [1] proposed methodology for the estimation of the P and S terms used in glass interpretation when assessing the value of the findings given activity level propositions. These terms arise in a model proposed by Evett [2], Evett and Buckleton [3], and are based on survey data.

Developing an interpretation model for body fluid identification.

Criminal investigations, particularly sexual assaults, frequently require the identification of body fluid type in addition to body fluid donor to provide context. In most cases this can be achieved by conventional methods, however, in certain scenarios, alternative molecular methods are required. An example of this is the detection of menstrual fluid and vaginal material, which are not able to be identified using conventional techniques.

An inter-laboratory comparison of probabilistic genotyping parameters and evaluation of performance on DNA mixtures from different laboratories.

Probabilistic genotyping (PG) is becoming the preferred standard for evidence interpretation, amongst forensic DNA laboratories, especially those in the United States. Various groups have expressed concern about reliability of PG systems, especially for mixtures beyond two contributors. Studies involving interlaboratory testing of known mixtures have been identified as ways to evaluate the reliability of PG systems.

A diagnosis of the primary difference between EuroForMix and STRmix™.

There is interest in comparing the output, principally the likelihood ratio, from the two probabilistic genotyping software EuroForMix (EFM) and STRmix™. Many of these comparison studies are descriptive and make little or no effort to diagnose the cause of difference. There are fundamental differences between EFM and STRmix™ that are causative of the largest set of likelihood ratio differences.

Classification of firing pin impressions using HOG-SVM.

Crimes, such as robbery and murder, often involve firearms. In order to assist with the investigation into the crime, firearm examiners are asked to determine whether cartridge cases found at a crime scene had been fired from a suspect's firearm. This examination is based on a comparison of the marks left on the surfaces of cartridge cases.

The number of alleles in DNA mixtures with related contributors.

The maximum allele count (MAC) across loci and the total allele count (TAC) are often used to gauge the number of contributors to a DNA mixture. Computational strategies that predict the total number of alleles in a mixture arising from a certain number of contributors of a given population have been developed. Previous work considered the restricted case where all of the contributors to a mixture are unrelated.

Modeling allelic analyte signals for aSTRs in NGS DNA profiles.

We describe an adaption of Bright et al.'s work modeling peak height variability in CE-DNA profiles to the modeling of allelic aSTR (autosomal short tandem repeats) read counts from NGS-DNA profiles, specifically for profiles generated from the ForenSeq™ DNA Signature Prep Kit, DNA Primer Mix B. Bright et al.

Relaxing the assumption of unrelatedness in the numerator and denominator of likelihood ratios for DNA mixtures.

DNA mixtures will have multiple donors under both the prosecution and alternate propositions when assigning a likelihood ratio for forensic DNA evidence. These donors are usually assumed to be unrelated to each other. In this paper, we make a small, preliminary examination of the potential effect of relaxing this assumption.

Are low LRs reliable?

To answer the question "Are low likelihood ratios reliable?" requires both a definition of reliable and then a test of whether low likelihood ratios (LRs) meet that definition. We offer, from a purely statistical standpoint, that reliability can be determined by assessing whether the rate of inclusionary support for non-donors over many cases is not larger than expected from the LR value. Thus, it is not the magnitude of the LR alone that determines reliability.

Variability and additivity of read counts for aSTRs in NGS DNA profiles.

There has been an increase in the number of laboratories and researchers adopting new sequencing technologies, known as next-generation sequencing (NGS). An understanding of the behaviour of NGS DNA profiles is needed to enable for the development of probabilistic genotyping methods for the interpretation of such profiles. In this work, we investigate NGS analyte signal variation, specifically heterozygous balance and stutter variability from profiles generated using the ForenSeq™ DNA Signature Prep Kit, DNA Primer Mix B.

Estimation of Y haplotype frequencies with lower order dependencies.

Estimating Y haplotype population frequencies is a demanding task in forensic genetics. Despite the suggestion of various methods, none these have yet reached a level of accuracy and precision that is acceptable to the forensic genetics community. At the basis of this problem is the complex dependency structure between the involved STR loci.

Testing whether stutter and low-level DNA peaks are additive.

Peaks in an electropherogram could represent alleles, stutter product, or a combination of allele and stutter. Continuous probabilistic genotyping (PG) systems model the heights of peaks in an additive manner: for a shared or composite peak, PG models assume that the peak height is the sum of the allelic component and the stutter component. In this work we examine the assumption that the heights of overlapping alleles from a minor contributor and stutter peaks from a major contributor are additive.

Multi-element comparisons of tapes evidence using dimensionality reduction for calculating likelihood ratios.

Computing the likelihood ratio (LR), as a measure of weight of evidence, has traditionally been difficult for multi-element evidence. A solution based on multivariate random effects models has been adopted by the forensic community but suffers from instability and has a tendency toward extreme values. This problem is magnified by increasing the number of variables.

A response to "Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: A closer look" by Lund and Iyer.

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert's likelihood ratio without further consideration.

Importance sampling allows H true tests of highly discriminating DNA profiles.

H true testing is a way of assessing the performance of a model, or DNA profile interpretation system. These tests involve simulating DNA profiles of non-donors to a DNA mixture and calculating a likelihood ratio (LR) with one proposition postulating their contribution and the alternative postulating their non-contribution. Following Turing it is possible to predict that "The average LR for the H true tests should be one"[1].

Admitting to uncertainty in the LR.

In this paper I argue that, given our current state of knowledge, reporting uncertainty in the likelihood ratio is best practice. This may in time be replaced by reporting a Bayes factor, but we are currently unable to do this in all but the simplest of examples.

Uncertainty in the number of contributors in the proposed new CODIS set.

The probability that multiple contributors are detected within a forensic DNA profile improves as more highly polymorphic loci are analysed. The assignment of the correct number of contributors to a profile is important when interpreting the DNA profiles. In this work we investigate the probability of a mixed DNA profile appearing as having originated from a fewer number of contributors for the African American, Asian, Caucasian and Hispanic US populations.

The effect of wild card designations and rare alleles in forensic DNA database searches.

Forensic DNA databases are powerful tools used for the identification of persons of interest in criminal investigations. Typically, they consist of two parts: (1) a database containing DNA profiles of known individuals and (2) a database of DNA profiles associated with crime scenes. The risk of adventitious or chance matches between crimes and innocent people increases as the number of profiles within a database grows and more data is shared between various forensic DNA databases, e.

The variability in likelihood ratios due to different mechanisms.

Recently there has been a drive towards standardisation of forensic DNA interpretation methods resulting in the uptake of probabilistic interpretation software. Some of these software solutions utilise Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques (MCMC). They will not produce an identical answer after repeat interpretations of the same evidence profile because of the Monte Carlo aspect.

A series of recommended tests when validating probabilistic DNA profile interpretation software.

There has been a recent push from many jurisdictions for the standardisation of forensic DNA interpretation methods. Current research is moving from threshold-based interpretation strategies towards continuous interpretation strategies. However laboratory uptake of software employing probabilistic models is slow.

Geographical variation of shoeprint comparison class correspondences.

The underlying principles involved in the interpretation of shoeprint comparisons have become a topical subject due to criticisms in the 2009 National Academy of Science (NAS) report on forensic sciences[1]. Difficulties in the application and understanding of these principles were also highlighted in a recent court ruling [2-5] and subsequent discussion of the ruling. We report here a survey that may inform some aspects of this interpretation and discuss the implications of findings from this survey in the light of that court ruling and more importantly the NAS report.

Modeling forward stutter: toward increased objectivity in forensic DNA interpretation.

Forward stutter, or over stutter, one repeat unit length larger than the parent allele (N + 1 stutter), is a relatively rare product of the PCR amplification of STRs used in forensic DNA analysis. We have investigated possible explanatory variables for the occurrence and size of forward stutter for four different autosomal multiplexes. In addition, we have investigated models used to predict the expected heights of forward stutter.

Investigation into stutter ratio variability between different laboratories.

The determination of parameters such as stutter ratio is important to inform a laboratory's forensic DNA profile interpretation strategy. As part of a large data analysis project to implement a continuous model of DNA profile interpretation we analysed stutter ratio data from eight different forensic laboratories for the Promega PowerPlex(®) 21 multiplex. This allowed a comparison of inter laboratory variation.

The effect of the uncertainty in the number of contributors to mixed DNA profiles on profile interpretation.

The effect of uncertainty in the number of contributors to a profile is a matter of some contention in forensic DNA interpretation. Interpretation methods are moving towards continuous models. Within this paper the effect of misspecification of the number of contributors to a profile caused by one artefactual peak, either a large back stutter or a forward stutter, was investigated using a continuous model.