Econometric Causality: The Central Role of Thought Experiments.

This paper examines the econometric causal model and the interpretation of empirical evidence based on thought experiments that was developed by Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two currently popular causal frameworks: the Neyman-Rubin causal model and the Do-Calculus. The Neyman-Rubin causal model is based on the language of potential outcomes and was largely developed by statisticians.

Dealing with imperfect randomization: Inference for the highscope perry preschool program.

This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of characteristics that may be observed or unobserved by the analyst. We develop a partial identification approach to this problem that makes use of information limiting the extent to which randomization is imperfect to show that it is still possible to make nontrivial inferences about the effects of the program in such settings.

The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children.

This paper demonstrates the long-term intragenerational and intergenerational benefits of the HighScope Perry Preschool Project, which targeted disadvantaged African-American children. We use newly collected data on the original participants through late middle age and on their children into their mid-twenties. We document long-lasting improvements in the original participants' skills, marriage stability, earnings, criminal behavior, and health.

Comparing China REACH and the Jamaica Home Visiting Program.

Objectives: Delayed child skill development is a common phenomenon in low- and middle-income countries. Effective and low-cost strategies suitable for application to less-developed countries are needed. We summarize empirical findings from recent papers that study a replication of the Jamaica Reach Up and Learn home visiting program in China, China REACH, and compare child skill growth profiles in the China Reach Up and Jamaica interventions.

The Econometric Model for Causal Policy Analysis.

This paper discusses the econometric model of causal policy analysis and two alternative frameworks that are popular in statistics and computer science. By employing the alternative frameworks uncritically, economists ignore the substantial advantages of an econometric approach, resulting in less informative analyses of economic policy. We show that the econometric approach to causality enables economists to characterize and analyze a wider range of policy problems than alternative approaches.

Causal Inference of Social Experiments using Orthogonal Designs.

Orthogonal Arrays are a powerful class of experimental designs that has been widely used to determine efficient arrangements of treatment factors in randomized controlled trials. Despite its popularity, the method is seldom used in social sciences. Social experiments must cope with randomization compromises such as noncompliance that often prevents the use of elaborate designs.

Early childhood learning patterns for a home visiting program in rural China.

This paper uses novel experimental data from a prototypical early childhood home visiting program in China with high-frequency measurements to investigate the growth of multiple skills. After identifying the presence of child skill development on multiple skills during the intervention, we further study the features of child learning patterns. We find that individual heterogeneity and previous task performance (state dependence) are key properties of the child's task performance during the intervention, consistent with models of reinforcement learning.

Comparing the reliability and predictive power of child, teacher, and guardian reports of noncognitive skills.

Children's noncognitive or socioemotional skills (e.g., persistence and self-control) are typically measured using surveys in which either children rate their own skills or adults rate the skills of children.

Using a Satisficing Model of Experimenter Decision-Making to Guide Finite-Sample Inference for Compromised Experiments.

This paper presents a simple decision-theoretic economic approach for analyzing social experiments with compromised random assignment protocols that are only partially documented. We model administratively constrained experimenters who satisfice in seeking covariate balance. We develop design-based small-sample hypothesis tests that use worst-case (least favorable) randomization null distributions.

Cognitive, psychosocial, and behaviour gains at age 31 years from the Jamaica early childhood stimulation trial.

Background: There is little evidence on adult benefits from early childhood interventions in low and middle-income countries. We assessed adult cognition, psychosocial skills and behaviour from a stimulation trial conducted in Jamaica.

Methods: Children with stunted growth (height-for age <-2SD of references) aged 9-24 months were enrolled in a two-year randomised-controlled trial of nutritional supplementation and/or stimulation.

Early childhood education and life-cycle health.

This study forecasts the life-cycle treatment effects on health of a high-quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using nonexperimental data with experimental data from a midlife long-term follow-up. The follow-up incorporated a full epidemiological exam.

Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program.

This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with non-experimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.

Sensitivity of self-reported noncognitive skills to survey administration conditions.

Noncognitive skills (e.g., persistence and self-control) are typically measured using self-reported questionnaires in which respondents rate their own skills.

Medical Scribes, Provider and Patient Experience, and Patient Throughput: a Trial in an Academic General Internal Medicine Practice.

Background: Medical scribes have been proposed as a solution to the problems of excessive documentation, work-life balance, and burnout facing general internists. However, their acceptability to patients and effects on provider experience have not been tested in a real-world model of effectiveness.

Objective: To measure the effect of medical scribes on patient satisfaction, provider satisfaction, and provider productivity.

Returns to Education: The Causal Effects of Education on Earnings, Health, and Smoking.

This paper estimates returns to education using a dynamic model of educational choice that synthesizes approaches in the structural dynamic discrete choice literature with approaches used in the reduced form treatment effect literature. It is an empirically robust middle ground between the two approaches which estimates economically interpretable and policy-relevant dynamic treatment effects that account for heterogeneity in cognitive and non-cognitive skills and the continuation values of educational choices. Graduating college is not a wise choice for all.

Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education.

We evaluate the Reggio Approach using non-experimental data on individuals from the cities of Reggio Emilia, Parma and Padova belonging to one of five age cohorts: ages 50, 40, 30, 18, and 6 as of 2012. The treated were exposed to municipally offered infant-toddler (ages 0-3) and preschool (ages 3-6) programs. The control group either did not receive formal childcare or were exposed to programs offered by the state or religious systems.