Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme.

Objectives: The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited an outside view of probabilistic forecasts based on judgements of experts about the extent to which various types of hospital activity might be mitigated over 20 years, in support of the New Hospital Programme (NHP) in the English National Health Service.

Epaxial and hypaxial co-contraction: a mechanism for modulating strike pressure and accuracy during suction feeding in channel catfish.

Most fish species use concentric epaxial and hypaxial contractions to suction feed, whereby both muscle groups produce cranial expansion and negative intraoral pressures. In contrast, channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) suction feed with little to no cranial elevation and epaxial shortening, generating suction power primarily with hypaxial shortening and pectoral girdle retraction. We hypothesized that channel catfish (1) actively anchor the head via isometric contraction of the epaxials and (2) vary feeding performance by modulating the absolute and relative outputs of the co-contracting muscles.

Differences in access and utilisation of mental health services in the perinatal period for women from ethnic minorities-a population-based study.

Background: Barriers to accessing mental health care during pregnancy and the first postnatal year (perinatal period) seem to be greater for ethnic minority women; however, there is no reliable large-scale data about their actual use of mental health services during this period. Our study aims to explore access rates to secondary mental health services, including involuntary admissions to psychiatric inpatient care and patterns of engagement for ethnic minority women aged 18+ who gave birth in 2017 in England, UK.

Methods: Two datasets from the National Commissioning Data Repository, the Acute Inpatient Dataset and Mental Health Services Dataset, were linked.