Modeling vaccination and control strategies for outbreaks of monkeypox at gatherings.

Background: The monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries in recent months has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). It is thought that festivals, parties, and other gatherings may have contributed to the outbreak.

Methods: We considered a hypothetical metropolitan city and modeled the transmission of the monkeypox virus in humans in a high-risk group (HRG) and a low-risk group (LRG) using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and incorporated gathering events.

Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study.

Initial efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic have relied heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and mask-wearing. However, an effective vaccine is essential to containing the spread of the virus. We developed a compartmental model to examine different vaccine strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19.

Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area.

To model the spread of monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread. The animal reservoir is the key element in the modeling of zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.

Mathematical modelling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada.

Background: Since December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategies focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths, but with vaccines becoming available to the broader population, it became important to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence.

Methods: We extended the classic deterministic SIR compartmental disease-transmission model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccine rollout scenarios.

Efficacy of a "stay-at-home" policy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Toronto, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Globally, nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19, including stay-at-home policies, limitations on gatherings and closure of public spaces, are being lifted. We explored the effect of lifting a stay-at-home policy on virus resurgence under different conditions.

Methods: Using confirmed case data from Toronto, Canada, between Feb.

Introduction to Focus Issue: Dynamical disease: A translational approach.

The concept of Dynamical Diseases provides a framework to understand physiological control systems in pathological states due to their operating in an abnormal range of control parameters: this allows for the possibility of a return to normal condition by a redress of the values of the governing parameters. The analogy with bifurcations in dynamical systems opens the possibility of mathematically modeling clinical conditions and investigating possible parameter changes that lead to avoidance of their pathological states. Since its introduction, this concept has been applied to a number of physiological systems, most notably cardiac, hematological, and neurological.

Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China.

Objective: To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.

Methods: We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals.

On the Effect of Age-Dependent Mortality on the Stability of a System of Delay-Differential Equations Modeling Erythropoiesis.

We present an age-structured model for erythropoiesis in which the mortality of mature cells is described empirically by a physiologically realistic probability distribution of survival times. Under some assumptions, the model can be transformed into a system of delay differential equations with both constant and distributed delays. The stability of the equilibrium of this system and possible Hopf bifurcations are described for a number of probability distributions.

Transit and lifespan in neutrophil production: implications for drug intervention.

A comparison of the transit compartment ordinary differential equation modelling approach to distributed and discrete delay differential equation models is studied by focusing on Quartino's extension to the Friberg transit compartment model of myelosuppression, widely relied upon in the pharmaceutical sciences to predict the neutrophil response after chemotherapy, and on a QSP delay differential equation model of granulopoiesis. An extension to the Quartino model is provided by considering a general number of transit compartments and introducing an extra parameter that allows for the decoupling of the maturation time from the production rate of cells. An overview of the well established linear chain technique, used to reformulate transit compartment models with constant transit rates as distributed delay differential equations (DDEs), is then given.

Normal and pathological dynamics of platelets in humans.

We develop a mathematical model of platelet, megakaryocyte, and thrombopoietin dynamics in humans. We show that there is a single stationary solution that can undergo a Hopf bifurcation, and use this information to investigate both normal and pathological platelet production, specifically cyclic thrombocytopenia. Carefully estimating model parameters from laboratory and clinical data, we then argue that a subset of parameters are involved in the genesis of cyclic thrombocytopenia based on clinical information.

Walking on a Vertically Oscillating Treadmill: Phase Synchronization and Gait Kinematics.

Sensory motor synchronization can be used to alter gait behavior. This type of therapy may be useful in a rehabilitative setting, though several questions remain regarding the most effective way to promote and sustain synchronization. The purpose of this study was to describe a new technique for using synchronization to influence a person's gait and to compare walking behavior under this paradigm with that of side by side walking.

Modeling the spread and control of dengue with limited public health resources.

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever is formulated to study, with a nonlinear recovery rate, the impact of available resources of the health system on the spread and control of the disease. Model results indicate the existence of multiple endemic equilibria, as well as coexistence of an endemic equilibrium with a periodic solution. Additionally, our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation.

Neutrophil dynamics during concurrent chemotherapy and G-CSF administration: Mathematical modelling guides dose optimisation to minimise neutropenia.

The choice of chemotherapy regimens is often constrained by the patient's tolerance to the side effects of chemotherapeutic agents. This dose-limiting issue is a major concern in dose regimen design, which is typically focused on maximising drug benefits. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is one of the most prevalent toxic effects patients experience and frequently threatens the efficient use of chemotherapy.

Threshold dynamics in an SEIRS model with latency and temporary immunity.

A disease transmission model of SEIRS type with distributed delays in latent and temporary immune periods is discussed. With general/particular probability distributions in both of these periods, we address the threshold property of the basic reproduction number R0 and the dynamical properties of the disease-free/endemic equilibrium points present in the model. More specifically, we 1.

Bifurcations in a white-blood-cell production model.

We study the dynamics of a model of white-blood-cell (WBC) production. The model consists of two compartmental differential equations with two discrete delays. We show that from normal to pathological parameter values, the system undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcations and saddle-node bifurcations of limit cycles.

Oscillations in cyclical neutropenia: new evidence based on mathematical modeling.

We present a dynamical model of the production and regulation of circulating blood neutrophil number. This model is derived from physiologically relevant features of the hematopoietic system, and is analysed using both analytic and numerical methods. Supercritical Hopf bifurcations and saddle-node bifurcations of limit cycles are shown to exist.

Spatial effects in modeling pharmacokinetics of rapid action drugs.

We develop a model to describe the time course of plasma concentration of neuromuscular blocking agents used as anesthetics during surgery. This model, which overcomes the limitations of the classical compartment models routinely used in pharmacokinetics, incorporates spatial effects due to heterogeneity in the circulation: it takes the form of a dispersion equation on a circular domain, with a time-dependent leakage term. This term is fitted to the functional form desired once first-stage transients have died out.

Complex dynamics and multistability in a damped harmonic oscillator with delayed negative feedback.

A center manifold reduction and numerical calculations are used to demonstrate the presence of limit cycles, two-tori, and multistability in the damped harmonic oscillator with delayed negative feedback. This model is the prototype of a mechanical system operating with delayed feedback. Complex dynamics are thus seen to arise in very plausible and commonly occurring mechanical and neuromechanical feedback systems.

Dynamical disease: Identification, temporal aspects and treatment strategies of human illness.

Dynamical diseases are characterized by sudden changes in the qualitative dynamics of physiological processes, leading to abnormal dynamics and disease. Thus, there is a natural matching between the mathematical field of nonlinear dynamics and medicine. This paper summarizes advances in the study of dynamical disease with emphasis on a NATO Advanced Research Worshop held in Mont Tremblant, Quebec, Canada in February 1994.