Towards ecosystem-based techniques for tipping point detection.

An ecosystem shifts to an alternative stable state when a threshold of accumulated pressure (i.e. direct impact of environmental change or human activities) is exceeded.

Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas.

Ocean warming and acidification, decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations, and changes in primary production are causing an unprecedented global redistribution of marine life. The identification of underlying ecological processes underpinning marine species turnover, particularly the prevalence of increases of warm-water species or declines of cold-water species, has been recently debated in the context of ocean warming. Here, we track changes in the mean thermal affinity of marine communities across European seas by calculating the Community Temperature Index for 65 biodiversity time series collected over four decades and containing 1,817 species from different communities (zooplankton, coastal benthos, pelagic and demersal invertebrates and fish).

Causes and consequences of acidification in the Baltic Sea: implications for monitoring and management.

Increasing atmospheric CO drives ocean acidification globally. In coastal seas, acidification trends can however be either counteracted or enhanced by other processes. Ecosystem effects of acidification are so far small in the Baltic Sea, but changes should be anticipated unless CO emissions are curbed.

Are European Blue Economy ambitions in conflict with European environmental visions?

We report the outcomes of a comprehensive study of the potential consequences of the implementation of the EU Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (MSPD) in Danish waters. The analyses are anchored in a framework developed in support of data-driven Ecosystem-Based Maritime Spatial Planning. The data for the models include not only human stressors but also information on the distribution of ecosystem components ranging from planktonic communities over benthic communities to fish, seabirds and marine mammals.

Mixing apples and oranges: Assessing ecological status and its confidence from multiple and diverse indicators.

Ecosystem responses to increasing human pressures are complex and diverse, affecting organisms across all trophic levels. This has prompted the development of methods that integrate information across many indicators for environmental management. Legislative frameworks such as the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), specifically prescribe that integrated assessme nt (IA) of ecological status must consider indicators representing various biological and supporting quality elements.

Riverine flux of dissolved phosphorus to the coastal sea may be overestimated, especially in estuaries of gated rivers: Implications of phosphorus adsorption/desorption on suspended sediments.

The flux of terrestrial dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP, i.e. PO) via rivers into coastal seas is usually calculated by simply multiplying its concentration with the corresponding water flow at the river mouth.

Century-long records reveal shifting challenges to seagrass recovery.

Global losses over the 20th century placed seagrass ecosystems among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, with eutrophication, and associated deterioration of the submarine light environment identified as the main driver. Growing appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits of healthy seagrass meadows has stimulated efforts to protect and restore them, largely focused on reducing nutrient input to coastal waters. Here we analyze a unique data set spanning 135 years on eelgrass (Zostera marina), the dominant seagrass of the northern hemisphere.

Decision-Support Tools Used in the Baltic Sea Area: Performance and End-User Preferences.

Decision-support tools (DSTs) synthesize complex information to assist environmental managers in the decision-making process. Here, we review DSTs applied in the Baltic Sea area, to investigate how well the ecosystem approach is reflected in them, how different environmental problems are covered, and how well the tools meet the needs of the end users. The DSTs were evaluated based on (i) a set of performance criteria, (ii) information on end user preferences, (iii) how end users had been involved in tool development, and (iv) what experiences developers/hosts had on the use of the tools.

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e.

Distinct Coastal Microbiome Populations Associated With Autochthonous- and Allochthonous-Like Dissolved Organic Matter.

Coastal zones are important transitional areas between the land and sea, where both terrestrial and phytoplankton supplied dissolved organic matter (DOM) are respired or transformed. As climate change is expected to increase river discharge and water temperatures, DOM from both allochthonous and autochthonous sources is projected to increase. As these transformations are largely regulated by bacteria, we analyzed microbial community structure data in relation to a 6-month long time-series dataset of DOM characteristics from Roskilde Fjord and adjacent streams, Denmark.

Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea.

The coastal zone of the Baltic Sea is diverse with strong regional differences in the physico-chemical setting. This diversity is also reflected in the importance of different biogeochemical processes altering nutrient and organic matter fluxes on the passage from land to sea. This review investigates the most important processes for removal of nutrients and organic matter, and the factors that regulate the efficiency of the coastal filter.

Drivers of pH Variability in Coastal Ecosystems.

A synthesis of long-term changes in pH of coastal ecosystems shows that, in contrast to the uniform trends of open-ocean acidification (-0.0004 to -0.0026 pH units yr) driven by increased atmospheric CO, coastal ecosystems display a much broader range of trends (-0.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean.

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems.

Warming of Subarctic waters accelerates development of a key marine zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus.

Recent observations confirm the rising temperatures of Atlantic waters transported into the Arctic Ocean via the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). We studied the overall abundance and population structure of the North Atlantic keystone zooplankton copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which is the main prey for pelagic fish and some seabirds, in relation to selected environmental variables in this area between 2001 and 2011, when warming in the Arctic and Subarctic was particularly pronounced. Sampling within a 3-week time window each summer demonstrated that trends in the overall abundance of C.

Long photoperiods sustain high pH in Arctic kelp forests.

Concern on the impacts of ocean acidification on calcifiers, such as bivalves, sea urchins, and foraminifers, has led to efforts to understand the controls on pH in their habitats, which include kelp forests and seagrass meadows. The metabolism of these habitats can lead to diel fluctuation in pH with increases during the day and declines at night, suggesting no net effect on pH at time scales longer than daily. We examined the capacity of subarctic and Arctic kelps to up-regulate pH in situ and experimentally tested the role of photoperiod in determining the capacity of Arctic macrophytes to up-regulate pH.

Cover of coastal vegetation as an indicator of eutrophication along environmental gradients.

Coastal vegetation communities are important for primary production, biodiversity, coastal protection, carbon and nutrient cycling which, in combination with their sensitivity to eutrophication, render them potential indicators of environmental status for environmental policies like the EU Water and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. We evaluated one potential indicator for coastal vegetation, the cumulative cover at depths where the vegetation is light limited, by investigating its response to eutrophication along gradients in natural conditions. We used a large data set covering the Swedish coastline, spanning broad gradients in nutrient level, water clarity, seabed substrate, physical exposure and climate in addition to a salinity gradient from 0.

Approaches for integrated assessment of ecological and eutrophication status of surface waters in Nordic Countries.

We review approaches and tools currently used in Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) for integrated assessment of 'ecological status' sensu the EU Water Framework Directive as well as assessment of 'eutrophication status' in coastal and marine waters. Integration principles for combining indicators within biological quality elements (BQEs) and combining BQEs into a final-integrated assessment are discussed. Specific focus has been put on combining different types of information into indices, since several methods are currently employed.

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea.

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems.

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land.

Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century.

Deoxygenation is a global problem in coastal and open regions of the ocean, and has led to expanding areas of oxygen minimum zones and coastal hypoxia. The recent expansion of hypoxia in coastal ecosystems has been primarily attributed to global warming and enhanced nutrient input from land and atmosphere. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in the world is the Baltic Sea, where the relative importance of physical forcing versus eutrophication is still debated.

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: biogeochemical cycles, benthic fauna, and management.

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km(2) before 1950 to >60 000 km(2) since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important.

Good Environmental Status of marine ecosystems: what is it and how do we know when we have attained it?

The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires EU Member States (MS) to achieve Good Environmental Status (GEnS) of their seas by 2020. We address the question of what GEnS entails especially with regard to the level at which targets are set (descriptors, criteria, indicators), to scales for assessments (regional, sub-divisions, site-specific), and to difficulties in putting into practice the GEnS concept. We propose a refined and operational definition of GEnS, indicating the data and information needed to all parts of that definition.

Long-term survival of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki in a field trial.

Long-term survival of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki DMU67R has been investigated in a field trial. An experimental cabbage plot was sprayed with DMU67R in 1993 and was allowed to lie fallow since then.