Causal Estimands for Analyses of Averted and Avertible Outcomes due to Infectious Disease Interventions.

During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the number of averted and avertible outcomes due to vaccination campaigns to quantify public health impact. However, the estimands used in these analyses have not been previously formalized. It is also unclear how these analyses relate to the broader framework of direct, indirect, total, and overall causal effects under interference.

Effects of improved partner notification on the transmission of HIV and among men who have sex with men: a modelling study.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionally affected by HIV in the Netherlands. Partner notification (PN) is an important element in controlling the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. We investigated the effects of improving PN on the transmission of HIV and (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands.

Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa.

The recent expansion of mpox in Africa is characterized by a dramatic increase in zoonotic transmission (clade Ia) and the emergence of a new clade Ib that is transmitted from human to human by close contact. Clade Ia does not pose a threat in areas without zoonotic reservoirs. But clade Ib may spread widely, as did clade IIb which has spread globally since 2022 among men who have sex with men.

Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys, 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023.

BackgroundThe first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was largely mitigated by limiting contacts in the general population. In early 2022, most contact-reducing measures were lifted.AimTo assess whether the population has reverted to pre-pandemic contact behaviour and how this would affect transmission potential of a newly emerging pathogen.