Publications by authors named "J Scholey"
Empirical prediction intervals applied to short term mortality forecasts and excess deaths.
Popul Health Metr
December 2024
Background: In the winter of 2022/2023, excess death estimates for Germany indicated a 10% elevation, which has led to questions about the significance of this increase in mortality. Given the inherent errors in demographic forecasting, the reliability of estimating a 10% deviation is questionable. This research addresses this issue by analyzing the error distribution in forecasts of weekly deaths.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPopulation age structure dependency of the excess mortality P-score.
Popul Health Metr
September 2024
Article Synopsis
- The P-score has become a key metric for measuring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how actual deaths compare to expected deaths across different countries.
- This study analyzed P-scores for European countries from 2021 to 2023, taking into account age distributions and using statistical models to understand cross-country mortality differences.
- Findings reveal that while the P-score does account for age distribution, it has a minimal impact on comparisons among European countries, as the excess mortality effect is the primary factor influencing the rankings.
Article Synopsis
- The study introduces a new MR Multitasking (MT) technique designed to enhance radiotherapy treatment planning for abdominal sites by providing motion-resolved and multi-contrast images in a single scan.
- The MT technique employs advanced imaging methods to accurately capture motion and structural details, showing promising results in both digital simulations and real patient studies, with favorable correlations to traditional imaging methods.
- Initial clinical evaluations indicate that the MT technique allows for effective target delineation, suggesting that it could simplify and improve the abdominal radiotherapy planning process.
Multiple alterations of cellular metabolism have been documented in experimental studies of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and are thought to contribute to its pathogenesis. To elucidate the molecular pathways and transcriptional regulators associated with the metabolic changes of renal cysts in ADPKD, we compared global gene expression data from human renal cysts, minimally cystic tissues (MCT) from the same patients, and healthy human kidney cortical tissue samples. We found gene expression profiles of renal cysts were consistent with the Warburg effect with gene pathway changes favoring increased cellular glucose uptake and lactate production, instead of pyruvate oxidation.
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