Stepwise updating of probabilities is neither universal nor fully explained by motor costs.

Often our expectations are set by sampling many times from the same distribution. When that distribution changes, so should our expectations. If we want to decide whether to take our umbrella today we need to have tracked, and updated, our estimate of the probability of rain by reference to recent temperatures and precipitation.

[Spontaneous occurrence of a factor VIII inhibitor in glomerulonephritis and immunoglobulin a deficiency].

A 24-year-old patient with isolated IgA deficiency and a 3-year history of minimal change glomerulonephritis with nephrotic syndrome developed acute hemorrhagic diathesis. A spontaneous inhibitor of factor VIII was diagnosed. Therapy with substitution and plasmapheresis was without prolonged effect.

[Clinical picture, differential diagnosis, and conservative therapy of biliary obstruction (author's transl)].

The history, clinical picture, and laboratory values are clues in the diagnosis of biliary obstruction. The next diagnostic procedure for the differentiation between intra- and extrahepatic obstruction is an ultrasound study. Bile duct dilatation, cholelithiasis, hydrops, and empyema can be detected quickly and reliably.