Estimation of population-specific values of theta for PowerPlex Y23 profiles.

We examine 31,011 PPY23 profiles at the population, metapopulation and world levels. Most haplotypes appear only once but a few have higher counts, including a set of 23 matching profiles in Delhi, India and a set of 16 matching profiles in Burkina Faso with one additional matching American African profile. We estimate Fvalues to be used as "theta" (θ) in match probability calculations, following the method we used in our earlier survey of autosomal STR data.

Relevant propositions for Y chromosome interpretation.

The Y chromosomal haplotype is expected to be identical (or close to, depending on the mutation rate) among a male and many of his paternal relatives. This means that often the same evidential value for the DNA evidence is obtained, whether the true donor or one of his close paternal relatives is compared to a crime sample. Commentators (see for example the UK Forensic Science Regulator or Amorim) have suggested to change the proposition pair to compare the probability of the evidence if the Person of Interest (POI) or one of his close paternal relatives left the DNA to the probability of the evidence if an unrelated male from the population left the DNA.

Extending the discussion on inconsistency in forensic decisions and results.

The subject of inter- and intra-laboratory inconsistency was recently raised in a commentary by Itiel Dror. We re-visit an inter-laboratory trial, with which some of the authors of this current discussion were associated, to diagnose the causes of any differences in the likelihood ratios (LRs) assigned using probabilistic genotyping software. Some of the variation was due to different decisions that would be made on a case-by-case basis, some due to laboratory policy and would hence differ between laboratories, and the final and smallest part was the run-to-run difference caused by the Monte Carlo aspect of the software used.

Estimation of population specific values of theta for sequence-based STR profiles.

We describe the estimation of θ (theta) values from autosomal STR sequencing data for five metapopulations. The data were compiled from 20 publications and included 39 datasets comprising a total of 7005 samples. The estimates are suitable for use within the calculation of match probabilities in forensic casework.