Forecasting emergency department arrivals using INGARCH models.

Background: Forecasting patient arrivals to hospital emergency departments is critical to dealing with surges and to efficient planning, management and functioning of hospital emerency departments.

Objective: We explore whether past mean values and past observations are useful to forecast daily patient arrivals in an Emergency Department.

Material And Methods: We examine whether an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model can yield a better conditional distribution fit and forecast of patient arrivals by using past arrival information and taking into account the dynamics of the volatility of arrivals.

Price-switching spillovers between gold, oil, and stock markets: Evidence from the USA and China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper examines price-switching spillovers between the US and Chinese stock, crude oil, and gold futures markets before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, we show that stock markets were mainly influenced by their own shocks, with effects that were sensitive to regime shifts. Connectedness network analysis reveals that gold and stock markets were net contributors (receivers) of spillovers in the low-volatility regime (high-volatility regime), while oil was a major receiver (contributor) of spillovers in the low-volatility regime (high volatility regime).

Different types of cartilage neotissue fabricated from collagen hydrogels and mesenchymal stromal cells via SOX9, TGFB1 or BMP2 gene transfer.

Objective: As native cartilage consists of different phenotypical zones, this study aims to fabricate different types of neocartilage constructs from collagen hydrogels and human mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) genetically modified to express different chondrogenic factors.

Design: Human MSCs derived from bone-marrow of osteoarthritis (OA) hips were genetically modified using adenoviral vectors encoding sex-determining region Y-type high-mobility-group-box (SOX) 9, transforming growth factor beta (TGFB) 1 or bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) 2 cDNA, placed in type I collagen hydrogels and maintained in serum-free chondrogenic media for three weeks. Control constructs contained unmodified MSCs or MSCs expressing GFP.

Tissue Mimicry in Morphology and Composition Promotes Hierarchical Matrix Remodeling of Invading Stem Cells in Osteochondral and Meniscus Scaffolds.

An integral approach toward in situ tissue engineering through scaffolds that mimic tissue with regard to both tissue architecture and biochemical composition is presented. Monolithic osteochondral and meniscus scaffolds are prepared with tissue analog layered biochemical composition and perpendicularly oriented continuous micropores by a newly developed cryostructuring technology. These scaffolds enable rapid cell ingrowth and induce zonal-specific matrix synthesis of human multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells solely through their design without the need for supplementation of soluble factors such as growth factors.

A multilayered electrospun graft as vascular access for hemodialysis.

Despite medical achievements, the number of patients with end-stage kidney disease keeps steadily raising, thereby entailing a high number of surgical and interventional procedures to establish and maintain arteriovenous vascular access for hemodialysis. Due to vascular disease, aneurysms or infection, the preferred access-an autogenous arteriovenous fistula-is not always available and appropriate. Moreover, when replacing small diameter blood vessels, synthetic vascular grafts possess well-known disadvantages.