Publications by authors named "J Ojal"

COVID-19 vaccination rates have been low among adults in Kenya (36.7% as of late March 2023) with vaccine hesitancy posing a threat to the COVID-19 vaccination program. This study sought to examine facilitators and barriers to COVID-19 vaccinations in Kenya.

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Article Synopsis
  • Blood group O provides protection against severe malaria, while non-O blood groups (such as AA, AB, BB, and AO) are associated with increased risk and larger P. falciparum-host red blood cell rosettes.
  • The study tested whether double dose non-O genotypes (AA, BB, AB) have a higher risk of severe malaria compared to single dose heterozygotes (AO, BO) among Kenyan children.
  • Results indicated that double dose genotypes had significantly higher odds ratios for severe malaria and formed larger rosettes in vitro, supporting the idea that these genotypes increase susceptibility to malaria pathology.
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Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinees. However, at population level, this protection is driven by indirect effects. PCVs prevent nasopharyngeal acquisition of vaccine-serotype (VT) pneumococci, reducing onward transmission.

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Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected.

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The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure.

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