Moderate greenhouse climate and rapid carbonate formation after Marinoan snowball Earth.

When the Marinoan snowball Earth deglaciated in response to high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) concentrations, the planet warmed rapidly. It is commonly hypothesized that the ensuing supergreenhouse climate then declined slowly over hundreds of thousands of years through continental weathering. However, how the ocean affected atmospheric CO in the snowball Earth aftermath has never been quantified.

From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery.

I review the history of ideas that have led to the establishment of the RAPID monitoring system for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5° N. This history is closely connected to important events in my personal career.

Economic experiments support Ostrom's polycentric approach to mitigating climate change.

The late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom envisioned a polycentric approach to mitigating climate change rather than a centralised solution. Debating about global efforts to solve climate-change problems has yet not led to an effective global treaty. Ostrom argued that instead of focusing only on global efforts, it is better to encourage polycentric efforts to reduce the risks associated with the emission of greenhouse gases.

Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability.

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green's function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011-2020 surface warming rate of 0.

More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century.

Separating how model-to-model differences in the forced response (U) and internal variability (U) contribute to the uncertainty in climate projections is important, but challenging. Reducing U increases confidence in projections, while U characterises the range of possible futures that might occur purely by chance. Separating these uncertainties is limited in traditional multi-model ensembles because most models have only a small number of realisations; furthermore, some models are not independent.