Publications by authors named "J Gary Polhill"

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major shock to society in terms of health and economy that is affecting both UK and global food and nutrition security. It is adding to the 'perfect storm' of threats to society from climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, at a time of considerable change, rising nationalism and breakdown in international collaboration. In the UK, the situation is further complicated due to Brexit.

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This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients.

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Resource distribution networks are the infrastructure facilitating the flow of resources in both biotic and abiotic systems. Both theoretical and empirical arguments have proposed that physical systems self-organise to maximise power production, but how this trajectory is related to network development, especially regarding the heterogeneity of resource distribution in explicitly spatial networks, is less understood. Quantifying the heterogeneity of resource distribution is necessary for understanding how phenomena such as economic inequality or energetic niches emerge across socio-ecological and environmental systems.

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Article Synopsis
  • The text discusses how a debt-based economy perpetuates the need for more debt to sustain economic growth, while the impacts of this cycle on environmental sustainability are not well understood.
  • The study specifically focuses on Indonesia, the largest producer of palm oil reliant on debt, and uses an Agent-Based Model to analyze the effects of economic and conservation forces on food production, climate regulation, and biodiversity from 2018 to 2050.
  • Findings suggest that while debt-driven economic forces can aid environmental conservation, achieving true sustainability in the long term requires reducing dependency on debt and increasing government intervention to protect the environment.
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