Using Intentions to Predict Fertility.

On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding.

The Consequences of the 1959-1961 Chinese Famine for Educational Attainment.

This paper finds that the Great Chinese Famine of 1959-1961 reduced lifetime educational attainment by up to 3.8 years for people who lived in areas most severely hit by the famine. Using geographical variation in famine intensity, information about place of residence during the famine, and educational attainment recorded in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper demonstrates that the decline in educational attainment was particularly sharp for women.

Family planning and fertility in South Africa under apartheid.

During the apartheid era, all South Africans were formally classified as white, African, colored, or Asian. Starting in 1970, the government directly provided free family planning services to residents of townships and white-owned farms. Relative to African residents of other regions of the country, the share of African women that gave birth in these townships and white-owned farms declined by nearly one-third during the 1970s.

Measuring Heterogeneity in Preferences over the Sex of Children.

This paper introduces a model-based approach for measuring heterogeneity in sex preferences using birth history records. The approach identifies the combinations of preferences over the sex and number of children that best explain observed childbearing. Empirical estimates indicate that a majority of parents in Africa, Asia, and the Americas consider the sex of children when making childbearing decisions.

DO FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS DECREASE POVERTY? EVIDENCE FROM PUBLIC CENSUS DATA.

This paper provides new evidence that family planning programs are associated with a decrease in the share of children and adults living in poverty. Our research design exploits the county roll-out of U.S.