Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters.

Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-recovered (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics.

Predicted Impacts of Booster, Immunity Decline, Vaccination Strategies, and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Outcomes in France.

The major economic and health consequences of COVID-19 called for various protective measures and mass vaccination campaigns. A previsional model was used to predict the future impacts of various measure combinations on COVID-19 mortality over a 400-day period in France. Calibrated on previous national hospitalization and mortality data, an agent-based epidemiological model was used to predict individual and combined effects of booster doses, vaccination of refractory adults, and vaccination of children, according to infection severity, immunity waning, and graded non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures.

The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months of 2022. The study compares the efficiencies of four theoretical vaccination campaigns (over 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), combined with various non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Modeling the role of clusters and diffusion in the evolution of COVID-19 infections during lock-down.

The dynamics of the spread of epidemics, such as the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is highly nonlinear and therefore difficult to predict. As time evolves in the present pandemic, it appears more and more clearly that a clustered dynamics is a key element of the description. This means that the disease rapidly evolves within spatially localized networks, that diffuse and eventually create new clusters.

Inhibition of RhoA reduces propofol-mediated growth cone collapse, axonal transport impairment, loss of synaptic connectivity, and behavioural deficits.

Background: Exposure of the developing brain to propofol results in cognitive deficits. Recent data suggest that inhibition of neuronal apoptosis does not prevent cognitive defects, suggesting mechanisms other than neuronal apoptosis play a role in anaesthetic neurotoxicity. Proper neuronal growth during development is dependent upon growth cone morphology and axonal transport.