The impact of immigration on hepatitis B burden in the United States: a modelling study.

Background: The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 2030. However, the HBV prevalence in Western countries, where the historical prevalence is low and highly impacted by immigration trends, remains uncertain making planning difficult. We aimed to develop a more accurate estimate of HBV prevalence and identify key immigrant populations that need to be screened, vaccinated, and treated to achieve the elimination targets.

Cost-effectiveness of treating all hepatitis B-positive individuals in the United States.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading cause of liver disease and related mortality globally. However, most of the infected individuals in the United States remain undiagnosed and untreated. There is a need to understand more completely the economic and disease burden impact of removing treatment restrictions and increasing diagnosis and treatment.

Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

Background & Aims: Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme.

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021.

Cost-effectiveness and economic investment to eliminate chronic hepatitis C in Mexico.

In July 2020, the Mexican Government initiated the National Program for Elimination of Hepatitis C (HCV) under a procurement agreement, securing universal, free access to HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment for 2020-2022. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV (MXN) under a continuation (or end) to the agreement. A modelling and Delphi approach was used to evaluate the disease burden (2020-2030) and economic impact (2020-2035) of the Historical Base compared to Elimination, assuming the agreement continues (Elimination-Agreement to 2035) or terminates (Elimination-Agreement to 2022).

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world.

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, , and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

Background: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.

Methods: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever.

Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in women of childbearing age in 2019: a modelling study.

Background: Treatment for infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) during pregnancy has not yet been approved; however, interventions specifically targeting women, especially those of childbearing age (15-49 years), could prevent vertical transmission and community spread. To assess the impact of such interventions, improved prevalence estimates in this group are needed. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of viraemic HCV in 2019 among women of childbearing age.

Progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in high-income countries: An updated analysis.

Background & Aims: Elimination of HCV by 2030, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attainable with the availability of highly efficacious therapies. This study reports progress made in the timing of HCV elimination in 45 high-income countries between 2017 and 2019.

Methods: Disease progression models of HCV infection for each country were updated with latest data on chronic HCV prevalence, and annual diagnosis and treatment levels, assumed to remain constant in the future.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

Background & Aims: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs.

Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models.

Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization's elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models-the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation's PRoGReSs-based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. The impact of scaling up of the timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine is also investigated.

Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy.

Background And Aims: Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy.

Methods: A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV.

Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in children in 2018: a modelling study.

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence estimates for adults and high-risk groups have been widely published, but the disease burden in children is poorly understood. Direct-acting antiviral drugs, which are considered to be highly effective curative therapies for HCV, are now approved for paediatric patients as young as 3 years. Reliable prevalence estimates for this population are needed to inform scale-up of treatment and national strategies.

Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030.

Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals.