Long-term trends (1986-2019) in the physicochemical properties of the Sado Estuary (Portugal) driven primarily by changes in river flow and influenced by marine upwelling.

Estuaries are among the most sensitive systems to climate change. Previous studies have suggested that the Sado Estuary (Portugal) has decreasing trends for water temperature, which is uncommon in a global warming scenario. However, no long-term analysis regarding water column conditions has been conducted on this estuary to date.

40 years of changes in sea surface temperature along the Western Iberian Coast.

Climate change is causing mean sea surface temperatures (SST) to increase worldwide. However, this increase has not been temporally or spatially uniform, with variations observed depending both on the period considered and the geographic region. In this context, this paper aims to quantify relevant changes in SST along the Western Iberian Coast over the last four decades, through the calculation of trends and anomalies of long-term time series of in situ observations and satellite-derived data.

Climate change in estuarine systems: Patterns and gaps using a meta-analysis approach.

Although regional studies and projections suggest the deterioration of estuaries as a consequence of climate change, it is still difficult to fully understand the importance of such changes in estuarine systems. This limitation is particularly important considering their high dynamism and the lack of temporally extended in situ databases with a good spatial coverage for these systems worldwide. Furthermore, contradictory patterns have been observed across the globe.

The lunar nodal cycle controls mangrove canopy cover on the Australian continent.

Long-phase (interannual) tidal cycles have been shown to influence coastal flooding and sedimentation, but their role in shaping the extent and condition of tidal wetlands has received little attention. Here, we show that the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle, popularly termed the "lunar wobble," is a dominant control over the expansion and contraction of mangrove canopy cover over much of the Australian continent.

A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk.

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980-2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015-2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models.

Digitising historical sea level records in the Thames Estuary, UK.

London is one of the world's most important coastal cities and is located around the Thames Estuary, United Kingdom (UK). Quantifying changes in sea levels in the Thames Estuary over the 20 century and early part of the 21 century is vital to inform future management of flood risk in London. However, there are currently relatively few long, digital records of sea level available in the Thames.

Assessment of Tidal Range Changes in the North Sea From 1958 to 2014.

We document an exceptional large-spatial scale case of changes in tidal range in the North Sea, featuring pronounced trends between -2.3 mm/yr at tide gauges in the United Kingdom and up to 7 mm/yr in the German Bight between 1958 and 2014. These changes are spatially heterogeneous and driven by a superposition of local and large-scale processes within the basin.

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species.

Explaining why some species are widespread, while others are not, is fundamental to biogeography, ecology, and evolutionary biology. A unique way to study evolutionary and ecological mechanisms that either limit species' spread or facilitate range expansions is to conduct research on species that have restricted distributions. Nonindigenous species, particularly those that are highly invasive but have not yet spread beyond the introduced site, represent ideal systems to study range size changes.

Estimation of global tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities using the STORM dataset.

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters. To mitigate the impact of such disasters, it is essential to know extreme exceedance probabilities, also known as return periods, of TC hazards. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the STORM dataset, containing synthetic TCs equivalent of 10,000 years under present-day climate conditions, for the calculation of TC wind speed return periods.

Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts.

We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g.

Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM.

Over the past few decades, the world has seen substantial tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria entering the top-5 costliest Atlantic hurricanes ever. Calculating TC risk at a global scale, however, has proven difficult given the limited temporal and spatial information on TCs across much of the global coastline. Here, we present a novel database on TC characteristics on a global scale using a newly developed synthetic resampling algorithm we call STORM (Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model).

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.

An improved database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915 to 2016.

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The 'SurgeWatch' v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical coastal flood events around the UK.

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014.

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100.

A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections.