[Methodological approaches to forecasting of disability dynamics in Ukraine].

Estimated the dynamics of indexes of primary disability of adult and able to work population for 2000-2009 on the whole on Ukraine and on administrative territories. For development of the methodological going near prognostication of disability used the methods of mathematical statistics: analysis of sentinel rows and regressive analysis. Indexes over of disability during ten years are brought as sentinel rows through the system of sentinel parameters and supervision; the models of linear trends are built, their adequacy and authenticity are tested, a prognosis is certain.