Vaccination for communicable endemic diseases: optimal allocation of initial and booster vaccine doses.

For some communicable endemic diseases (e.g., influenza, COVID-19), vaccination is an effective means of preventing the spread of infection and reducing mortality, but must be augmented over time with vaccine booster doses.

Cost-effectiveness of office-based buprenorphine treatment for opioid use disorder.

Aim: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of office-based buprenorphine treatment (OBBT) in the U.S.

Design Setting And Participants: We performed a model-based analysis of buprenorphine treatment provided in a primary care setting for the U.

Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease.

The problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccine to control a communicable disease has broad applications in public health and has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. This allocation problem is highly complex and nonlinear. Decision makers need a practical, accurate, and interpretable method to guide vaccine allocation.

Surveillance for endemic infectious disease outbreaks: Adaptive sampling using profile likelihood estimation.

Outbreaks of an endemic infectious disease can occur when the disease is introduced into a highly susceptible subpopulation or when the disease enters a network of connected individuals. For example, significant HIV outbreaks among people who inject drugs have occurred in at least half a dozen US states in recent years. This motivates the current study: how can limited testing resources be allocated across geographic regions to rapidly detect outbreaks of an endemic infectious disease? We develop an adaptive sampling algorithm that uses profile likelihood to estimate the distribution of the number of positive tests that would occur for each location in a future time period if that location were sampled.

Assessment of physician training and prediction of workforce needs in paediatric cardiac intensive care in the United States.

Objective: To assess the training and the future workforce needs of paediatric cardiac critical care faculty.

Design: REDCap surveys were sent May-August 2019 to medical directors and faculty at the 120 US centres participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database. Faculty and directors were asked about personal training pathway and planned employment changes.

Optimal allocation of limited vaccine to minimize the effective reproduction number.

We examine the problem of allocating a limited supply of vaccine for controlling an infectious disease with the goal of minimizing the effective reproduction number R. We consider an SIR model with two interacting populations and develop an analytical expression that the optimal vaccine allocation must satisfy. With limited vaccine supplies, we find that an all-or-nothing approach is optimal.

Effectiveness of Face Masks in Reducing the Spread of COVID-19: A Model-Based Analysis.

Background: The World Health Organization and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that both infected and susceptible people wear face masks to protect against COVID-19.

Methods: We develop a dynamic disease model to assess the effectiveness of face masks in reducing the spread of COVID-19, during an initial outbreak and a later resurgence, as a function of mask effectiveness, coverage, intervention timing, and time horizon. We instantiate the model for the COVID-19 outbreak in New York, with sensitivity analyses on key natural history parameters.

Optimal allocation of limited vaccine to control an infectious disease: Simple analytical conditions.

When allocating limited vaccines to control an infectious disease, policy makers frequently have goals relating to individual health benefits (e.g., reduced morbidity and mortality) as well as population-level health benefits (e.

Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of diversion programs for low-level drug offenders: A model-based analysis.

Background: Cycles of incarceration, drug abuse, and poverty undermine ongoing public health efforts to reduce overdose deaths and the spread of infectious disease in vulnerable populations. Jail diversion programs aim to divert low-level drug offenders toward community care resources, avoiding criminal justice costs and disruptions in treatment for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and drug abuse. We sought to assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a jail diversion program for low-level drug offenders.

Predicting and improving patient-level antibiotic adherence.

Low adherence to prescribed medications causes substantial health and economic burden. We analyzed primary data from electronic medical records of 250,000 random patients from Israel's Maccabi Healthcare services from 2007 to 2017 to predict whether a patient will purchase a prescribed antibiotic. We developed a decision model to evaluate whether an intervention to improve purchasing adherence is warranted for the patient, considering the cost of the intervention and the cost of non-adherence.

Target-Based Care: An Intervention to Reduce Variation in Postoperative Length of Stay.

Objectives: To derive care targets and evaluate the impact of displaying them at the point of care on postoperative length of stay (LOS).

Study Design: A prospective cohort study using 2 years of historical controls within a freestanding, academic children's hospital. Patients undergoing benchmark cardiac surgery between May 4, 2014, and August 15, 2016 (preintervention) and September 6, 2016, to September 30, 2018 (postintervention) were included.