Plasticity and not adaptation is the primary source of temperature-mediated variation in flowering phenology in North America.

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (S) and space (S).

Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California.

In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes. This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire.

Advancing frost dates have reduced frost risk among most North American angiosperms since 1980.

In recent decades, the final frost dates of winter have advanced throughout North America, and many angiosperm taxa have simultaneously advanced their flowering times as the climate has warmed. Phenological advancement may reduce plant fitness, as flowering prior to the final frost date of the winter/spring transition may damage flower buds or open flowers, limiting fruit and seed production. The risk of floral exposure to frost in the recent past and in the future, however, also depends on whether the last day of winter frost is advancing more rapidly, or less rapidly, than the date of onset of flowering in response to climate warming.

A new phenological metric for use in pheno-climatic models: A case study using herbarium specimens of .

Premise: Herbarium specimens have been used to detect climate-induced shifts in flowering time by using the day of year of collection (DOY) as a proxy for first or peak flowering date. Variation among herbarium sheets in their phenological status, however, undermines the assumption that DOY accurately represents any particular phenophase. Ignoring this variation can reduce the explanatory power of pheno-climatic models (PCMs) designed to predict the effects of climate on flowering date.

Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net.

Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive.

Long-term herbarium records reveal temperature-dependent changes in flowering phenology in the southeastern USA.

In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged indicating that the relationship between flowering phenology and climate may differ throughout various portions of the growing season. These differences have resulted in long-term changes in flowering synchrony that may alter the quantity and diversity of pollinator attention to many species, as well as altering food availability to pollenivorous and nectarivorous animal species. However, long-term multi-season records of past flowering timing have primarily focused on temperate environments.

Digital herbarium archives as a spatially extensive, taxonomically discriminate phenological record; a comparison to MODIS satellite imagery.

This study demonstrates that phenological information included in digital herbarium archives can produce annual phenological estimates correlated to satellite-derived green wave phenology at a regional scale (R = 0.183, P = 0.03).