Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities.

William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility.