A horizon scan of biological conservation issues for 2025.

We discuss the outcomes of our 16th horizon scan of issues that are novel or represent a considerable step-change and have the potential to substantially affect conservation of biological diversity in the coming decade. From an initial 96 topics, our international panel of 32 scientists and practitioners prioritised 15 issues. Technological advances are prominent, including metal and non-metal organic frameworks, deriving rare earth elements from macroalgae, synthetic gene drives in plants, and low-emission cement.

Long-term studies on West Antarctic Peninsula phytoplankton blooms suggest range shifts between temperate and polar species.

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) experiences one of the highest rates of sea surface warming globally, leading to potential changes in biological communities. Long-term phytoplankton monitoring in Potter Cove (PC, King George Island, South Shetlands) from the 1990s to 2009 revealed consistently low biomass values, and sporadic blooms dominated by cold-water microplankton diatoms. However, a significant change occurred between 2010 and 2020, marked by a notable increase in intense phytoplankton blooms in the region.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024.

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years.

Interpopulational differences in the nutritional condition of (Protobranchia: Nuculanidae) from the Western Antarctic Peninsula during austral summer.

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a hotspot for environmental change and has a strong environmental gradient from North to South. Here, for the first time we used adult individuals of the bivalve to evaluate large-scale spatial variation in the biochemical composition (measured as lipid, protein and fatty acids) and energy content, as a proxy for nutritional condition, of three populations along the WAP: O'Higgins Research Station in the north (63.3°S), Yelcho Research Station in mid-WAP (64.

Marine food webs are more complex but less stable in sub-Antarctic (Beagle Channel, Argentina) than in Antarctic (Potter Cove, Antarctic Peninsula) regions.

Food web structure plays an important role in determining ecosystem stability against perturbations. High-latitude marine ecosystems are being affected by environmental stressors and biological invasions. In the West Antarctic Peninsula these transformations are mainly driven by climate change, while in the sub-Antarctic region by anthropogenic activities.

Glacial melt disturbance shifts community metabolism of an Antarctic seafloor ecosystem from net autotrophy to heterotrophy.

Climate change-induced glacial melt affects benthic ecosystems along the West Antarctic Peninsula, but current understanding of the effects on benthic primary production and respiration is limited. Here we demonstrate with a series of in situ community metabolism measurements that climate-related glacial melt disturbance shifts benthic communities from net autotrophy to heterotrophy. With little glacial melt disturbance (during cold El Niño spring 2015), clear waters enabled high benthic microalgal production, resulting in net autotrophic benthic communities.

Antarctic ecosystems in transition - life between stresses and opportunities.

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats.

Micro- and mesozooplankton successions in an Antarctic coastal environment during a warm year.

The rapid increase in atmospheric temperature detected in the last decades in the Western Antarctic Peninsula was accompanied by a strong glacier retreat and an increase in production of melting water, as well as changes in the sea-ice dynamic. The objective of this study was to analyze the succession of micro- and mesozooplankton during a warm annual cycle (December 2010-December 2011) in an Antarctic coastal environment (Potter Cove). The biomass of zooplankton body size classes was used to predict predator-prey size relationships (i.

Harmful phytoplankton in the Beagle Channel (South America) as a potential threat to aquaculture activities.

The Beagle Channel is a remote subantarctic environment where mussel aquaculture initiatives have existed since the early 1990s. Here we analyze phytoplankton biomass and composition, and the occurrence of harmful microalgae species and their toxins at three sites during the period 2015-2016. The occurrence of potentially harmful algae was observed throughout the study period, including toxigenic dinoflagellates such as Alexandrium catenella (Group I of the A.

Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change.

Sea-ice and coastal glacier loss in the Western Antarctic Peninsula open new ice-free areas. They allowing primary production and providing new seabed for colonisation, both acting as a negative feedback of climate change. However, the injection of sediment-laden runoff from the melting of land-terminating glaciers may reduce this feedback.

Inter-decadal variability of phytoplankton biomass along the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula.

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island.

Anatomy of a glacial meltwater discharge event in an Antarctic cove.

Glacial meltwater discharge from Antarctica is a key influence on the marine environment, impacting ocean circulation, sea level and productivity of the pelagic and benthic ecosystems. The responses elicited depend strongly on the characteristics of the meltwater releases, including timing, spatial structure and geochemical composition. Here we use isotopic tracers to reveal the time-varying pattern of meltwater during a discharge event from the Fourcade Glacier into Potter Cove, northern Antarctic Peninsula.

Glacial melting: an overlooked threat to Antarctic krill.

Strandings of marine animals are relatively common in marine systems. However, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We observed mass strandings of krill in Antarctica that appeared to be linked to the presence of glacial meltwater.

Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem.

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is one of the three places on Earth that registered the most intense warming in the last 50 years, almost five times the global mean. This warming has strongly affected the cryosphere, causing the largest ice-shelf collapses ever observed and the retreat of 87% of glaciers. Ecosystem responses, although increasingly predicted, have been mainly reported for pelagic systems.

Climate change enhances primary production in the western Antarctic Peninsula.

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972-2010), sea ice concentration (1978-2010), sea-surface temperature (1990-2010), incident irradiance (1988-2010) and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a, 1997-2010) for the coastal WAP.

The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (<1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread.

Effects of enhanced UV-B on pigment-based phytoplankton biomass and composition of mesocosm-enclosed natural marine communities from three latitudes.

A series of three outdoor mesocosm experiments was undertaken in Rimouski (Canada), Ubatuba (Brazil) and Ushuaia (southern Argentina) to examine the effects of lamp-enhanced UV-B (280-320 nm) on phytoplankton communities isolated from seawater at each site. Detailed pigment composition was used to identify these communities. Each experiment compared three replicated UV-B treatments, consisting of natural sunlight conditions (NUVB), low-level UV-B enhancement corresponding to local 30% ozone depletion (LUVB) and high-level enhancement corresponding to 60% ozone depletion (HUVB).

The whole is more than the sum of its parts: Modeling community-level effects of UVR in marine ecosystems.

The effect of UVB radiation (UVBR, 290-320 nm) on the dynamics of the lower levels of the marine plankton community was modeled. The model was built using differential equations and shows a good fit to experimental data collected in mesocosms (defined as large enclosures of 1500 L filled with natural marine waters). Some unexpected results appear to be possible by indirect effects in prey (bacteria, phytoplankton and heterotrophic flagellates).

Vertical mixing and ecological effects of ultraviolet radiation in planktonic communities.

We present a mathematical model for a phytoplankton-zooplankton system, based on a predator-prey scheme. The model considers the effects of sinking in the phytoplankton, vertical mixing and attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in the water column. In a first approach, the model was studied under conditions of average PAR irradiance and shows fluctuations and stable equilibrium points.

Ultraviolet-B radiation effects on the structure and function of lower trophic levels of the marine planktonic food web.

The impact of UV-B radiation (UVBR; 280-320 nm) on lower levels of a natural plankton assemblage (bacteria, phytoplankton and microzooplankton) from the St. Lawrence Estuary was studied during 9 days using several immersed outdoor mesocosms. Two exposure treatments were used in triplicate mesocosms: natural UVBR (N treatment, considered as the control treatment) and lamp-enhanced UVBR (H treatment, simulating 60% depletion of the ozone layer).

Photoacclimation to long-term ultraviolet radiation exposure of natural sub-Antarctic phytoplankton communities: Fixed surface incubations versus mixed mesocosms.

Solar UVB radiation (280-320 nm) is known to have detrimental effects on marine phytoplankton. Associated with the seasonal ozone hole in Antarctica, stratospheric ozone depletion occasionally influences the sub-Antarctic (Beagle Channel, Argentina) region, enhancing levels of UVB. The primary objective of this work was to study the effects of several (i.

UV effects on marine planktonic food webs: A synthesis of results from mesocosm studies.

UV irradiance has a broad range of effects on marine planktonic organisms. Direct and indirect effects on individual organisms have complex impacts on food-web structure and dynamics, with implications for carbon and nutrient cycling. Mesocosm experiments are well suited for the study of such complex interrelationships.