Predictability, an Orrery, and a Speciation Machine: Quest for a Standard Model of Speciation.

Accurate predictions are commonly taken as a hallmark of strong scientific understanding. Yet, we do not seem capable today of making many accurate predictions about biological speciation. Why? What limits predictability in general, what exactly is the function and value of predictions, and how might we go about predicting new species? Inspired by an orrery used to explain solar eclipses, we address these questions with a thought experiment in which we conceive an evolutionary speciation machine generating new species.

Instability of natural selection at candidate barrier loci underlying speciation in wood ants.

Speciation underlies the generation of novel biodiversity. Yet, there is much to learn about how natural selection shapes genomes during speciation. Selection is assumed to act against gene flow at barrier loci, promoting reproductive isolation.