Publications by authors named "Iain Koolhof"

Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates the complex interactions of various vector and host factors that influence the transmission dynamics of the Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's leading mosquito-borne illness.
  • Using mathematical modeling and long-term surveillance data from 1991 to 2017, researchers analyzed the effects of different mosquito species, host animals, and seasonal changes on RRV spread across multiple regions.
  • The results reveal that combining two mosquito species and two host types, along with adjusting for seasonal variations, best explains RRV transmission dynamics, while also highlighting significant underreporting of infections.
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Aviation passenger screening has been used worldwide to mitigate the translocation risk of SARS-CoV-2. We present a model that evaluates factors in screening strategies used in air travel and assess their relative sensitivity and importance in identifying infectious passengers. We use adapted Monte Carlo simulations to produce hypothetical disease timelines for the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 for travelling passengers.

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In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study analyzes how ambient temperature and mobility patterns influenced COVID-19 transmission in Japan from May 2020 to March 2022, using daily data from six prefectures.
  • It employs specialized statistical models to establish the relationship between temperature, mobility, and the effective reproductive number of the virus, revealing significant increases in transmission linked to extreme temperatures and high mobility.
  • The findings highlight the importance of environmental factors and public behavior in disease spread, offering insights that could inform effective public health strategies.
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Article Synopsis
  • Researchers analyzed the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on seasonal influenza cases in Japan during 2020, finding a significant 66% decrease in cases compared to previous years.
  • Increased sales of hand hygiene products, specifically a rise of ¥1 billion, correlated with a 15.5% reduction in influenza activity.
  • Additionally, higher numbers of airline passengers were linked to increased influenza cases, emphasizing the importance of NPIs for public health during pandemic conditions.
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Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as sanitary measures and travel restrictions, aimed at controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may affect the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). We aimed to quantify the contribution of the sales of hand hygiene products and the number of international and domestic airline passenger arrivals on HRSV epidemic in Japan.

Methods: The monthly number of HRSV cases per sentinel site (HRSV activity) in 2020 was compared with the average of the corresponding period in the previous 6 years (from January 2014 to December 2020) using a monthly paired t-test.

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Pollen is a well-established trigger of asthma and allergic rhinitis, yet concentration-response relationships, lagged effects, and interactions with other environmental factors remain poorly understood. Smartphone technology offers an opportunity to address these challenges using large, multi-year datasets that capture individual symptoms and exposures in real time. We aimed to characterise associations between six pollen types and respiratory symptoms logged by users of the AirRater smartphone app in Tasmania, Australia.

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Few studies have examined the effects of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions on the shift in human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) season in Japan. This study aims to test whether the number of inbound overseas travelers and meteorological conditions are associated with the onset week of HRSV epidemic season. The estimation of onset week for 46 prefectures (except for Okinawa prefecture) in Japan for 4-year period (2014-2017) was obtained from previous papers based on the national surveillance data.

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Article Synopsis
  • Statistical models are essential for predicting and monitoring infectious diseases, yet often lack evaluation for their suitability in specific contexts.
  • Researchers developed various statistical methods using data from RRV diseases in Victoria and Western Australia to enhance accuracy in forecasting.
  • The study revealed that different models are needed for predicting disease notifications versus outbreaks, highlighting the importance of appropriate model selection and variable analysis in public health.
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Campus community gardens (CCGs) can potentially improve student health and wellbeing, mitigate social and ecological problems, and nurture university-community relationships. However, CCGs are located in complex socio-political and ecological settings and many community gardens struggle or fail. However, few studies have assessed the socio-political/ecological context of a garden setting prior to its development to understand the potential barriers and enablers of success.

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Asthma and allergic rhinitis (or hay fever) are ubiquitous, chronic health conditions that seasonally affect a sizeable proportion of the population. Both are commonly triggered or exacerbated by environmental conditions including aeroallergens, air quality and weather. Smartphone technology offers new opportunities to identify environmental drivers by allowing large-scale, real-time collection of day-to-day symptoms.

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Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria.

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Stressful conditions experienced during early development can have deleterious effects on offspring morphology, physiology and behaviour. However, few studies have examined how developmental stress influences an individual's cognitive phenotype. Using a viviparous lizard, we show that the availability of food resources to a mother during gestation influences a key component of her offspring's cognitive phenotype: their decision-making.

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Background: Zoonotic vector-borne disease prevalence is affected by vector, human, and reservoir host factors, which are influenced by habitat and climate; these 5 components interact on microhabitat-to-landscape scales but are often analyzed at a single spatial scale.

Methods: We present an information theoretic, multiscale, multiple regression analysis of the ecological drivers of Ross River virus. We analyze the spatial pattern of 20 years of Ross River virus infections from South Australia (1992-2012; n = 5261), using variables across these 5 components of disease ecology at 3 spatial scales.

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