[Possibilities of prognostication of complications in duodenal ulcer].

The authors investigated a prognostic value (with respect to the complications) of certain laboratory parameters used in the examination of the gastric juice in patients with duodenal ulcer (DU) as well as the prognostic value of certain anamnestic data. A total of 100 patients with DU who had been followed up for 5-6 years were under study. The results obtained demonstrated the most informative values for the DU-related complications turned to be the parameters of the performance of the defense mechanisms of the gastroduodenal area (the contents of mucous proteins, the coefficient of the gastric juice defense), the levels of gastric secretion and acidification (the quantity of the juice, the per hour discharge of hydrochloric acid) as well as the ratio between the coefficient of the defense and the coefficient of the pepsin aggression that reflected the ratio between the aggressive and defensive factors of the gastric juice.

[The prognostic significance of the protein composition of the gastric juice in peptic ulcer].

A study of 100 patients was done with the purpose of determining the prognostic value of the protein composition and coefficient of defense (ratio of mucus protein composition and coefficient of defense (ratio of mucus protein concentration to proteolytic activity) of the gastric juice and possibility of their use for evaluation of the severity of duodenal ulcer. Results indicate that changes of the protein composition and coefficient of defense of the gastric juice have a prognostic significance for determination of the severity of duodenal ulcer and appearance of complications. Discriminant functions allow to predict the further course of duodenal ulcer with a 70-80% precision.

[The possibility for the sanitary removal of enteroviruses from water reservoirs in the case of intensive irrigation agriculture].

The efficacy of elimination of enteric viruses from water in the process of exploitation of a closed irrigating system is evaluated. Experimental and natural observations showed the half-life of the index virus in the water objects of the irrigating system to be 1.57 days.

[Computer model for prognosis of incidence of aseptic meningitis].

A possibility of construction of a mathematical model for current prognosing of aseptic meningitis incidence both for 2-4 months in advance and for the whole year has been demonstrated. The initial information consisted of the data on prevalence of enteroviruses in water objects as from May. Comparison of the actual and estimated incidence indicates that with the proposed model, up to 90.