BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.

Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables.

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of crop pests and diseases in a changing world: A case study on citrus greening.

Predicting where crop pests and diseases can occur, both now and in the future under different climate change scenarios, is a major challenge for crop management. One solution is to estimate the fundamental thermal niche of the pest/disease to indicate where establishment is possible. Here, we develop methods for estimating and displaying the fundamental thermal niche of pests and pathogens and apply these methods to Huanglongbing (HLB), a vector-borne disease that is currently threatening the citrus industry worldwide.