Epihiper-A high performance computational modeling framework to support epidemic science.

This paper describes Epihiper, a state-of-the-art, high performance computational modeling framework for epidemic science. The Epihiper modeling framework supports custom disease models, and can simulate epidemics over dynamic, large-scale networks while supporting modulation of the epidemic evolution through a set of user-programmable interventions. The nodes and edges of the social-contact network have customizable sets of static and dynamic attributes which allow the user to specify intervention target sets at a very fine-grained level; these also permit the network to be updated in response to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures.

Role of heterogeneity: National scale data-driven agent-based modeling for the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

UVA-EpiHiper is a national scale agent-based model to support the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH). UVA-EpiHiper uses a detailed representation of the underlying social contact network along with data measured during the course of the pandemic to initialize and calibrate the model. In this paper, we study the role of heterogeneity on model complexity and resulting epidemic dynamics using UVA-EpiHiper.

Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges.

LMdist: Local Manifold distance accurately measures beta diversity in ecological gradients.

Motivation: Differentiating ecosystems poses a complex, high-dimensional problem constrained by capturing relevant variation across species profiles. Researchers use pairwise distances and subsequent dimensionality reduction to highlight variation in a few dimensions. Despite popularity in analysis of ecological data, these low-dimensional visualizations can contain geometric abnormalities such as "arch" and "horseshoe" effects, potentially obscuring the impact of environmental gradients.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.

Industrialized human gut microbiota increases CD8+ T cells and mucus thickness in humanized mouse gut.

Immigration to a highly industrialized nation has been associated with metabolic disease and simultaneous shifts in microbiota composition, but the underlying mechanisms are challenging to test in human studies. Here, we conducted a pilot study to assess the differential effects of human gut microbiota collected from the United States (US) and rural Thailand on the murine gut mucosa and immune system. Colonization of germ-free mice with microbiota from US individuals resulted in an increased accumulation of innate-like CD8 T cells in the small intestine lamina propria and intra-epithelial compartments when compared to colonization with microbiota from Thai individuals.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. .

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.

Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of () an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; () a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; () a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; () an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions.

COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States.

Background: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.

Methods: To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States.

Supplementation with a probiotic mixture accelerates gut microbiome maturation and reduces intestinal inflammation in extremely preterm infants.

Probiotics are increasingly administered to premature infants to prevent necrotizing enterocolitis and neonatal sepsis. However, their effects on gut microbiome assembly and immunity are poorly understood. Using a randomized intervention trial in extremely premature infants, we tested the effects of a probiotic product containing four strains of Bifidobacterium species autochthonous to the infant gut and one Lacticaseibacillus strain on the compositional and functional trajectory of microbiome.

BioSimulators: a central registry of simulation engines and services for recommending specific tools.

Computational models have great potential to accelerate bioscience, bioengineering, and medicine. However, it remains challenging to reproduce and reuse simulations, in part, because the numerous formats and methods for simulating various subsystems and scales remain siloed by different software tools. For example, each tool must be executed through a distinct interface.

A Guide to Dietary Pattern-Microbiome Data Integration.

The human gut microbiome is linked to metabolic and cardiovascular disease risk. Dietary modulation of the human gut microbiome offers an attractive pathway to manipulate the microbiome to prevent microbiome-related disease. However, this promise has not been realized.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022.

Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US.

This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

What Is Already Known About This Topic?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021.

What Is Added By This Report?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant.

Saliva Testing Is Accurate for Early-Stage and Presymptomatic COVID-19.

Although nasopharyngeal samples have been considered the gold standard for COVID-19 testing, variability in viral load across different anatomical sites could cause nasopharyngeal samples to be less sensitive than saliva or nasal samples in certain cases. Self-collected samples have logistical advantages over nasopharyngeal samples, making them amenable to population-scale screening. To evaluate sampling alternatives for population screening, we collected nasopharyngeal, saliva, and nasal samples from two cohorts with varied levels and types of symptoms.

Calprotectin (S100A8/A9) Is an Innate Immune Effector in Experimental Periodontitis.

Upregulated in inflammation, calprotectin (complexed S100A8 and S100A9; S100A8/A9) functions as an innate immune effector molecule, promoting inflammation, and also as an antimicrobial protein. We hypothesized that antimicrobial S100A8/A9 would mitigate change to the local microbial community and promote resistance to experimental periodontitis . To test this hypothesis, S100A9 and wild-type (WT; S100A9) C57BL/6 mice were compared using a model of ligature-induced periodontitis.

Placentas delivered by pre-pregnant obese women have reduced abundance and diversity in the microbiome.

Maternal pre-pregnancy obesity may have an impact on both maternal and fetal health. We examined the microbiome recovered from placentas in a multi-ethnic maternal pre-pregnant obesity cohort, through an optimized microbiome protocol to enrich low bacterial biomass samples. We found that the microbiomes recovered from the placentas of obese pre-pregnant mothers are less abundant and less diverse when compared to those from mothers of normal pre-pregnancy weight.

Scalable Epidemiological Workflows to Support COVID-19 Planning and Response.

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem.

Prioritizing allocation of COVID-19 vaccines based on social contacts increases vaccination effectiveness.

We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Even optimistic estimates suggest that most countries will likely take 6 to 24 months to vaccinate their citizens. These time estimates and the emergence of new viral strains urge us to find quick and effective ways to allocate the vaccines and contain the pandemic.

Alteration of the Gut Microbiome in Normal and Overweight School Children from Selangor with Fermented Milk Administration.

Childhood obesity is a serious public health problem worldwide. Perturbations in the gut microbiota composition have been associated with the development of obesity in both children and adults. Probiotics, on the other hand, are proven to restore the composition of the gut microbiome which helps reduce the development of obesity.