Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity.

Wildfires are favored by hot, dry, windy, rainless conditions-this knowledge about fire weather informs both short-term forecast and long-term prediction of wildfire activity. Yet, wildfires rely on the availability of ignition and fuel, which are underrepresented in fire forecast and prediction practices. By analyzing satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, here we show that near-surface weather only partially captures wildfire occurrence and intensity across the daily to seasonal timescales.