Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic there was a plethora of dynamical forecasting models created, but their ability to effectively describe future trajectories of disease was mixed. A major challenge in evaluating future case trends was forecasting the behavior of individuals. When behavior was incorporated into models, it was primarily incorporated exogenously (e.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Population-level vaccine efficacy is a critical component of understanding COVID-19 risk, informing public health policy, and mitigating disease impacts. Unlike individual-level clinical trials, population-level analysis characterizes how well vaccines worked in the face of real-world challenges like emerging variants, differing mobility patterns, and policy changes.
Methods: In this study, we analyze the association between time-dependent vaccination rates and COVID-19 health outcomes for 48 U.
An impressive number of COVID-19 data catalogs exist. However, none are fully optimized for data science applications. Inconsistent naming and data conventions, uneven quality control, and lack of alignment between disease data and potential predictors pose barriers to robust modeling and analysis.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Since the US reported its first COVID-19 case on January 21, 2020, the science community has been applying various techniques to forecast incident cases and deaths. To date, providing an accurate and robust forecast at a high spatial resolution has proved challenging, even in the short term.
Method: Here we present a novel multi-stage deep learning model to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for each US state at a weekly level for a forecast horizon of 1-4 weeks.
On Jan 22, 2020, a day after the USA reported its first COVID-19 case, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE) launched the first global real-time coronavirus surveillance system: the JHU CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard. As of June 1, 2022, the dashboard has served the global audience for more than 30 consecutive months, totalling over 226 billion feature layer requests and 3·6 billion page views. The highest daily record was set on March 29, 2020, with more than 4·6 billion requests and over 69 million views.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Within 4 months of COVID-19 first being reported in the USA, it spread to every state and to more than 90% of all counties. During this period, the US COVID-19 response was highly decentralised, with stay-at-home directives issued by state and local officials, subject to varying levels of enforcement. The absence of a centralised policy and timeline combined with the complex dynamics of human mobility and the variable intensity of local outbreaks makes assessing the effect of large-scale social distancing on COVID-19 transmission in the USA a challenge.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF"The Belt and Road" initiative has been expected to facilitate interactions among numerous city centers. This initiative would generate a number of centers, both economic and political, which would facilitate greater interaction. To explore how information flows are merged and the specific opportunities that may be offered, Chinese cities along "the Belt and Road" are selected for a case study.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF