Perspectives on Design Approaches for HIV Prevention Efficacy Trials.

The challenge of designing future HIV prevention efficacy trials in a rapidly evolving HIV prevention landscape was explored through a series of virtual stakeholder's engagement meetings convened online between October 2020 and April 2021. A broad array of stakeholders from the HIV prevention research community reviewed current trial designs and lessons learned, explored issues specific to unique product classes, and concluded with specialist-focused examinations of statistical design concepts and the importance of community engagement in research. The aim was to reflect on current approaches and evaluate new trial design approaches for evaluating efficacy of a candidate prevention strategy in the context of an active-controlled trial, which does not include a placebo arm.

Understanding the public health value and defining preferred product characteristics for therapeutic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines: World Health Organization consultations, October 2021-March 2022.

The World Health Organization (WHO) global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer (CxCa) could result in >62 million lives saved by 2120 if strategy targets are reached and maintained: 90% of adolescent girls receiving prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, 70% of women receiving twice-lifetime cervical cancer screening, and 90% of cervical pre-cancer lesions and invasive CxCa treated. However, the cost and complexity of CxCa screening and treatment approaches has hampered scale-up, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and new approaches are needed. Therapeutic HPV vaccines (TxV), which could clear persistent high-risk HPV infection and/or cause regression of pre-cancerous lesions, are in early clinical development and might offer one such approach.

World Health Organization Expert Working Group: Recommendations for assessing morbidity associated with enteric pathogens.

Background: Diarrhoeal infections are one of the leading causes of child's mortality and morbidity. Vaccines against Shigella, enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), norovirus and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella are in clinical development, however, their full value in terms of short and long-term health and socio-economic burden needs to be evaluated and communicated, to rationalise investment in vaccine development, and deployment.

Using data from 'visible' populations to estimate the size and importance of 'hidden' populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique.

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in Bangalore, mainly collected from 'hot-spot' locations that attract MSM/TGW, to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample. A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed, incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW, grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role (insertive, receptive or versatile). Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for 'balancing' numbers of partners and role preferences, we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more 'hidden' insertive MSM subpopulation, and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic.

Can mother-to-child transmission of HIV be eliminated without addressing the issue of stigma? Modeling the case for a setting in South Africa.

Background: Stigma and discrimination ontinue to undermine the effectiveness of the HIV response. Despite a growing body of evidence of the negative relationship between stigma and HIV outcomes, there is a paucity of data available on the prevalence of stigma and its impact. We present a probabilistic cascade model to estimate the magnitude of impact stigma has on mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT).

Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study.

Introduction: In Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers.

Factors Associated with Variations in Population HIV Prevalence across West Africa: Findings from an Ecological Analysis.

Background: Population HIV prevalence across West Africa varies substantially. We assess the national epidemiological and behavioural factors associated with this.

Methods: National, urban and rural data on HIV prevalence, the percentage of younger (15-24) and older (25-49) women and men reporting multiple (2+) partners in the past year, HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have bought sex in the past year (clients), and ART coverage, were compiled for 13 countries.

Association between sexual role and HIV status among Peruvian men who have sex with men seeking an HIV test: a cross-sectional analysis.

In Latin America, sexual role, sexual identity and sexual practices are intricately related; the roles activo, pasivo and moderno often encompass sexual identity and sexual practices. We aimed to understand the association between sexual role and HIV status in Peruvian men who have sex with men. HIV-testing services at Epicentro Salud, a Peruvian gay men's health centre, were paired with clinic data on demographics and sexual behaviour.

Relationship between exposure to the Avahan intervention and levels of reported condom use among men who have sex with men in southern India.

Background: The Avahan intervention promotes consistent (100%) condom use amongst men who have sex with men in southern India. We assessed how condom use varies with intervention exposure for men who have sex with men in Bangalore.

Methods: Self-reported condom use and intervention exposure data were derived from a cross-sectional survey.

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

Background: New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage.

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

Background: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly.

Methods: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years.

Can the UNAIDS modes of transmission model be improved? A comparison of the original and revised model projections using data from a setting in west Africa.

Objective: The UNAIDS modes of transmission model (MoT) is a user-friendly model, developed to predict the distribution of new HIV infections among different subgroups. The model has been used in 29 countries to guide interventions. However, there is the risk that the simplifications inherent in the MoT produce misleading findings.