Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density.

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions).

Factors affecting MeHg bioaccumulation in stream biota: the role of dissolved organic carbon and diet.

The bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in freshwater ecosystems is thought to be mediated by both water chemistry (e.g., dissolved organic carbon [DOC] and dissolved mercury [Hg]) and diet (e.

Dissolved organic carbon modulates mercury concentrations in insect subsidies from streams to terrestrial consumers.

Mercury (Hg) concentrations in aquatic environments have increased globally, exposing consumers of aquatic organisms to high Hg levels. For both aquatic and terrestrial consumers, exposure to Hg depends on their food sources as well as environmental factors influencing Hg bioavailability. The majority of the research on the transfer of methylmercury (MeHg), a toxic and bioaccumulating form of Hg, between aquatic and terrestrial food webs has focused on terrestrial piscivores.

Ecosystem effects of a tropical cyclone on a network of lakes in northeastern North America.

Here we document the regional effects of Tropical Cyclone Irene on thermal structure and ecosystem metabolism in nine lakes and reservoirs in northeastern North America using a network of high-frequency, in situ, automated sensors. Thermal stability declined within hours in all systems following passage of Irene, and the magnitude of change was related to the volume of water falling on the lake and catchment relative to lake volume. Across systems, temperature change predicted the change in primary production, but changes in mixed-layer thickness did not affect metabolism.