Optimal allocation of resources among general and species-specific tools for plant pest biosecurity surveillance.

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost-effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations.

Estimating the transmission parameters of foot-and-mouth disease in Vietnam: A spatial-dynamic kernel-based model with outbreak and host data.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects cloven-hoofed livestock and causes devastating damages to the world's economies. Being endemic in developing countries, FMD has imposed a significant threat to the FMD-freedom status in developed countries. The globally-concerted effort to eradicate FMD at its source has faced a substantial challenge of having little knowledge about how FMD spreads in developing countries.

A cost-benefit analysis of Vietnam's 2006-2010 foot-and-mouth disease control program.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is arguably the most damaging animal disease, affecting three-quarters of the global livestock population. This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of the first five-year program that used vaccination to contain and control FMD in an endemic country, Vietnam. Our spatial and dynamic model to simulate FMD outbreaks fully considered the distance among livestock premises, their herd sizes, and composition, all of which significantly affect FMD transmission.

Optimal surveillance against bioinvasions: a sample average approximation method applied to an agent-based spread model.

Trade-offs exist between the point of early detection and the future cost of controlling any invasive species. Finding optimal levels of early detection, with post-border active surveillance, where time, space and randomness are explicitly considered, is computationally challenging. We use a stochastic programming model to find the optimal level of surveillance and predict damages, easing the computational challenge by combining a sample average approximation (SAA) approach and parallel processing techniques.

Rice land protection in a transitional economy: The case of Vietnam.

Agricultural land protection (ALP) is a standard policy response to a desire for food security. However, ALP may result in a misallocation of resources. Examining rice land policy in Vietnam, we determine the optimal level of rice land protected against other crops using a stochastic optimization model built on top of a general equilibrium framework, combined with sequential micro-simulations on household data.

Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach.

Decisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal level of surveillance against a highly infectious animal disease where time, space and randomness are fully considered.

Strengthening tuberculosis control overseas: who benefits?

Background: Although tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, available funding falls far short of that required for effective control. Economic and spillover consequences of investments in the treatment of tuberculosis are unclear, particularly when steep gradients in the disease and response are linked by population movements, such as that between Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Australian cross-border region.

Objective: To undertake an economic evaluation of Australian support for the expansion of basic Directly Observed Treatment, Short Course in the PNG border area of the South Fly from the current level of 14% coverage.