The impact of surveillance and other factors on detection of emergent and circulating vaccine derived polioviruses.

Circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks remain a threat to polio eradication. To reduce cases of polio from cVDPV of serotype 2, the serotype 2 component of the vaccine has been removed from the global vaccine supply, but outbreaks of cVDPV2 have continued. The objective of this work is to understand the factors associated with later detection in order to improve detection of these unwanted events.

Changes in on-time vaccination following the introduction of an electronic immunization registry, Tanzania 2016-2018: interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: Digital health interventions (DHI) have the potential to improve the management and utilization of health information to optimize health care worker performance and provision of care. Despite the proliferation of DHI projects in low-and middle-income countries, few have been evaluated in an effort to understand their impact on health systems and health-related outcomes. Although more evidence is needed on their impact and effectiveness, the use of DHIs among immunization programs has become more widespread and shows promise for improving vaccination uptake and adherence to immunization schedules.

Analysis of population immunity to poliovirus following cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine.

Background: The global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) (tOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1, 2 and 3) from routine immunization, and the introduction of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1 and 3) and trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization was expected to improve population serologic and mucosal immunity to types 1 and 3 poliovirus, while population mucosal immunity to type 2 poliovirus would decline. However, over the period since tOPV withdrawal, the implementation of preventive bOPV supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) has decreased, while outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) have required targeted use of monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2).

Methods: We develop a dynamic model of OPV-induced immunity to estimate serotype-specific, district-level immunity for countries in priority regions and characterize changes in immunity since 2016.

Real-time prediction model of cVDPV2 outbreaks to aid outbreak response vaccination strategies.

Background: Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks are spreading more widely than anticipated, which has generated a crisis for the global polio eradication initiative. Effectively responding with vaccination activities requires a rapid risk assessment. This assessment is made difficult by the low case-to-infection ratio of type 2 poliovirus, variable transmissibility, changing population immunity, surveillance delays, and limited vaccine supply from the global stockpile.

Linked surveillance and genetic data uncovers programmatically relevant geographic scale of Guinea worm transmission in Chad.

Background: Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten-year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission.

Methodology/principal Findings: We coupled genomic and surveillance case data from 2012-2018 to investigate the modes of transmission between dog and human hosts and the geographic connectivity of worms.

Projection of Costs of Polio Eradication Compared to Permanent Control.

Despite increased efforts and spending toward polio eradication, it has yet to be eliminated worldwide. We aimed to project economic costs of polio eradication compared to permanent control. We used historical Financial Resource Requirements from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, as well as vaccination and population data from publicly available sources, to project costs for routine immunization, immunization campaigns, surveillance and laboratory resources, technical assistance, social mobilization, treatment, and overhead.

Assessing the sensitivity of the polio environmental surveillance system.

Background: The polio environmental surveillance (ES) system has been an incredible tool for advancing polio eradication efforts because of its ability to highlight the spatial and temporal extent of poliovirus circulation. While ES often outperforms, or is more sensitive than AFP surveillance, the sensitivity of the ES system has not been well characterized. Fundamental uncertainty of ES site sensitivity makes it difficult to interpret results from ES, particularly negative results.

Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

Background: Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources.

Methods: Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak.

The risk of type 2 oral polio vaccine use in post-cessation outbreak response.

Background: Wild type 2 poliovirus was last observed in 1999. The Sabin-strain oral polio vaccine type 2 (OPV2) was critical to eradication, but it is known to revert to a neurovirulent phenotype, causing vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis. OPV2 is also transmissible and can establish circulating lineages, called circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs), which can also cause paralytic outbreaks.

Evaluating cessation of the type 2 oral polio vaccine by modeling pre- and post-cessation detection rates.

The globally synchronized removal of the attenuated Sabin type 2 strain from the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in April 2016 marked a major change in polio vaccination policy. This change will provide a significant reduction in the burden of vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), but may increase the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks during the transition period. This risk can be monitored by tracking the disappearance of Sabin-like type 2 (SL2) using data from the polio surveillance system.

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

Background: The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks.

Measuring polio immunity to plan immunization activities.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is closer than ever to achieving a polio-free world. Immunization activities must still be carried out in non-endemic countries to maintain population immunity at levels which will stop poliovirus from spreading if it is re-introduced from still-infected areas. In areas where there is no active transmission of poliovirus, programs must rely on surrogate indicators of population immunity to determine the appropriate immunization activities, typically caregiver-reported vaccination history obtained from non-polio acute flaccid paralysis patients identified through polio surveillance.

Preventing Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Emergence during the Polio Endgame.

Reversion and spread of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) to cause outbreaks of poliomyelitis is a rare outcome resulting from immunisation with the live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs). Global withdrawal of all three OPV serotypes is therefore a key objective of the polio endgame strategic plan, starting with serotype 2 (OPV2) in April 2016. Supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) with trivalent OPV (tOPV) in advance of this date could mitigate the risks of OPV2 withdrawal by increasing serotype-2 immunity, but may also create new serotype-2 VDPV (VDPV2).

Analysis of vaccination campaign effectiveness and population immunity to support and sustain polio elimination in Nigeria.

Background: The world is closer than ever to a polio-free Africa. In this end-stage, it is important to ensure high levels of population immunity to prevent polio outbreaks. Here, we introduce a new method of assessing vaccination campaign effectiveness and estimating immunity at the district-level.

Dynamics of the Human Infectious Reservoir for Malaria Determined by Mosquito Feeding Assays and Ultrasensitive Malaria Diagnosis in Burkina Faso.

Background: Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes are essential for malaria transmission. Malaria control measures that aim at reducing transmission require an accurate characterization of the human infectious reservoir.

Methods: We longitudinally determined human infectiousness to mosquitoes and P.

Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria.

Background: One of the challenges facing the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is efficiently directing limited resources, such as specially trained personnel, community outreach activities, and satellite vaccinator tracking, to the most at-risk areas to maximize the impact of interventions. A validated predictive model of wild poliovirus circulation would greatly inform prioritization efforts by accurately forecasting areas at greatest risk, thus enabling the greatest effect of program interventions.

Methods: Using Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data from 2004-2013, we developed a spatial hierarchical Poisson hurdle model fitted within a Bayesian framework to study historical polio caseload patterns and forecast future circulation of type 1 and 3 wild poliovirus within districts in Nigeria.