Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment.

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD.

Mathematical Quantification of Transmission in Experiments: FMDV Transmission in Pigs Can Be Blocked by Vaccination and Separation.

Quantitative understanding of transmission with and without control measures is important for the control of infectious diseases because it helps to determine which of these measures (or combinations thereof) will be effective to reduce transmission. In this paper, the statistical methods used to estimate transmission parameters are explained. To show how these methods can be used we reviewed literature for papers describing foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) transmission in pigs and we used the data to estimate transmission parameters.

Circulation of Shiga Toxin-Producing Phylogenetic Group B1 Strains Between Calve Stable Manure and Pasture Land With Grazing Heifers.

strains carrying Shiga toxins 1 and 2 ( and ), intimin (), and hemolysin (A) production genes were found in grass shoot, rhizosphere soil, and stable manure samples from a small-scale cattle farm located at the center of Netherlands, using cultivation-dependent and -independent microbiological detection techniques. Pasture land with grazing heifers in the first year of sampling in 2014 and without grazing cattle in 2015 was physically separated from the stable that housed rose calves during both years. Manure from the stable was applied to pasture via injection into soil once per year in early spring.

The influence of between-farm distance and farm size on the spread of classical swine fever during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands.

As the size of livestock farms in The Netherlands is on the increase for economic reasons, an important question is how disease introduction risks and risks of onward transmission scale with farm size (i.e. with the number of animals on the farm).

The arable ecosystem as battleground for emergence of new human pathogens.

Disease incidences related to Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica infections by consumption of (fresh) vegetables, sprouts, and occasionally fruits made clear that these pathogens are not only transmitted to humans via the "classical" routes of meat, eggs, and dairy products, but also can be transmitted to humans via plants or products derived from plants. Nowadays, it is of major concern that these human pathogens, especially the ones belonging to the taxonomical family of Enterobacteriaceae, become adapted to environmental habitats without losing their virulence to humans. Adaptation to the plant environment would lead to longer persistence in plants, increasing their chances on transmission to humans via consumption of plant-derived food.

The IncI1 plasmid carrying the blaCTX-M-1 gene persists in in vitro culture of a Escherichia coli strain from broilers.

Background: Commensal bacteria are a reservoir for antimicrobial-resistance genes. In the Netherlands, bacteria producing Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBL) are found on chicken-meat and in the gut of broilers at a high prevalence and the predominant ESBL-gene is the bla(CTX-M-1) located on IncI1 plasmids. We aim to determine the fitness costs of this plasmid for the bacterium.

The transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus among livestock in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic vector-borne infection and causes a potentially severe disease. Many mammals are susceptible to infection including important livestock species. Although currently confined to Africa and the near-East, this disease causes concern in countries in temperate climates where both hosts and potential vectors are present, such as the Netherlands.

Transmission risks and control of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands: spatial patterns.

In 2001 the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Great Britain, The Netherlands and France have shown how fast FMDV may spread between farms. The massive socio-economic impact of these epidemics and the intervention measures taken demonstrate the need for quantitative assessments of the efficacy of candidate intervention strategies. Here we use a mathematical model to describe the spatial transmission of FMDV in The Netherlands and use the Dutch 2001 outbreak data to estimate model parameters.

Breeding with resistant rams leads to rapid control of classical scrapie in affected sheep flocks.

Susceptibility to scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep, is modulated by the genetic make-up of the sheep. Scrapie control policies, based on selecting animals of resistant genotype for breeding, have recently been adopted by the Netherlands and other European countries. Here we assess the effectiveness of a breeding programme based on selecting rams of resistant genotype to obtain outbreak control in classical scrapie-affected sheep flocks under field conditions.

Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control classical swine fever epidemics.

In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects.

Milk quality assurance for paratuberculosis: simulation of within-herd infection dynamics and economics.

A bulk milk quality assurance programme for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in dairy herds was simulated with a stochastic simulation model (JohneSSim). The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological and economic effects of preventive management measures and various test schemes in a simulated population of closed Dutch dairy herds over a 20-year period.

Simulation of alternatives for the Dutch Johne's disease certification-and-monitoring program.

To identify optimal method(s) for certification and subsequent monitoring of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map)-unsuspected herds, certification-and-monitoring schemes were studied using a stochastic simulation model ("JohneSSim"). JohneSSim simulated the within-herd transmission and economic aspects of Map in closed Dutch dairy herds.