Long-term rise in riverine dissolved organic carbon concentration is predicted by electrolyte solubility theory.

The riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux is of similar magnitude to the terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO, but the factors controlling it remain poorly determined and are largely absent from Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we show, for a range of European headwater catchments, that electrolyte solubility theory explains how declining precipitation ionic strength (IS) has increased the dissolution of thermally moderated pools of soluble soil organic matter (OM), while hydrological conditions govern the proportion of this OM entering the aquatic system. Solubility will continue to rise exponentially with declining IS until pollutant ion deposition fully flattens out under clean air policies.

A new approach to characterising and predicting crop rotations using national-scale annual crop maps.

Cropping decisions affect the nature, timing and intensity of agricultural management strategies. Specific crop rotations are associated with different environmental impacts, which can be beneficial or detrimental. The ability to map, characterise and accurately predict rotations enables targeting of mitigation measures where most needed and forecasting of potential environmental risks.

Multiple soil map comparison highlights challenges for predicting topsoil organic carbon concentration at national scale.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration is the fundamental indicator of soil health, underpinning food production and climate change mitigation. SOC storage is highly sensitive to several dynamic environmental drivers, with approximately one third of soils degraded and losing carbon worldwide. Digital soil mapping illuminates where hotspots of SOC storage occur and where losses to the atmosphere are most likely.

Fire safety and emergency evacuation guidelines for intensive care units and operating theatres: for use in the event of fire, flood, power cut, oxygen supply failure, noxious gas, structural collapse or other critical incidents: Guidelines from the Association of Anaesthetists and the Intensive Care Society.

The need to evacuate an ICU or operating theatre complex during a fire or other emergency is a rare event but one potentially fraught with difficulty: Not only is there a risk that patients may come to harm but also that staff may be injured and unable to work. Designing newly-built or refurbished ICUs and operating theatre suites is an opportunity to incorporate mandatory fire safety features and improve the management and outcomes of such emergencies: These include well-marked manual fire call points and oxygen shut off valves (area valve service units); the ability to isolate individual zones; multiple clear exit routes; small bays or side rooms; preference for ground floor ICU location and interconnecting routes with operating theatres; separate clinical and non-clinical areas. ICUs and operating theatre suites should have a bespoke emergency evacuation plan and route map that is readily available.

Long-term effects of atmospheric deposition on British plant species richness.

The effects of atmospheric pollution on plant species richness (n) are of widespread concern. We carried out a modelling exercise to estimate how n in British semi-natural ecosystems responded to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) between 1800 and 2010. We derived a simple four-parameter equation relating n to measured soil pH, and to net primary productivity (NPP), calculated with the N14CP ecosystem model.

Comment on Pescott & Jitlal 2020: Failure to account for measurement error undermines their conclusion of a weak impact of nitrogen deposition on plant species richness.

Estimation of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on ecosystems and biodiversity is a research imperative. Analyses of large-scale spatial gradients, where an observed response is correlated with measured or modelled deposition, have been an important source of evidence. A number of problems beset this approach.

Patterns and trends of topsoil carbon in the UK: Complex interactions of land use change, climate and pollution.

The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978-2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0-15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from land use change, and secondly construct mixed models to describe the impact of indirect drivers where land use has been constant.

Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India's forest landscapes.

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the global "One Health" initiative, predictive models for tropical zoonotic diseases often focus on narrow ranges of risk factors and are rarely scaled to intervention programs and ecosystem use.

Data Integration for Large-Scale Models of Species Distributions.

With the expansion in the quantity and types of biodiversity data being collected, there is a need to find ways to combine these different sources to provide cohesive summaries of species' potential and realized distributions in space and time. Recently, model-based data integration has emerged as a means to achieve this by combining datasets in ways that retain the strengths of each. We describe a flexible approach to data integration using point process models, which provide a convenient way to translate across ecological currencies.

Integration of ground survey and remote sensing derived data: Producing robust indicators of habitat extent and condition.

The availability of suitable habitat is a key predictor of the changing status of biodiversity. Quantifying habitat availability over large spatial scales is, however, challenging. Although remote sensing techniques have high spatial coverage, there is uncertainty associated with these estimates due to errors in classification.

Presence of Subspecies Monitored Over Varying Temporal and Spatial Scales in River Catchments: Persistent Routes for Human Exposure.

subspecies () was monitored by quantitative PCR over a range of temporal and spatial scales in the River Tywi catchment. This study shows the persistence of over a 10-year period with little change, which correlates with the recognised levels of Johne's disease in British herds over that period (aim 1). was quantified within the river at up to 10 cell equivalents L and was shown to be consistently present when monitored over finer timescales (aim 4).

Livestock host composition rather than land use or climate explains spatial patterns in bluetongue disease in South India.

Culicoides-borne arboviruses of livestock impair animal health, livestock production and livelihoods worldwide. As these arboviruses are multi-host, multi-vector systems, predictions to improve targeting of disease control measures require frameworks that quantify the relative impacts of multiple abiotic and biotic factors on disease patterns. We develop such a framework to predict long term (1992-2009) average patterns in bluetongue (BT), caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), in sheep in southern India, where annual BT outbreaks constrain the livelihoods and production of small-holder farmers.

Model-based hypervolumes for complex ecological data.

Developing a holistic understanding of the ecosystem impacts of global change requires methods that can quantify the interactions among multiple response variables. One approach is to generate high dimensional spaces, or hypervolumes, to answer ecological questions in a multivariate context. A range of statistical methods has been applied to construct hypervolumes but have not yet been applied in the context of ecological data sets with spatial or temporal structure, for example, where the data are nested or demonstrate temporal autocorrelation.

Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century.

Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type.

Country-specific effects of neonicotinoid pesticides on honey bees and wild bees.

Neonicotinoid seed dressings have caused concern world-wide. We use large field experiments to assess the effects of neonicotinoid-treated crops on three bee species across three countries (Hungary, Germany, and the United Kingdom). Winter-sown oilseed rape was grown commercially with either seed coatings containing neonicotinoids (clothianidin or thiamethoxam) or no seed treatment (control).

Long-term increases in soil carbon due to ecosystem fertilization by atmospheric nitrogen deposition demonstrated by regional-scale modelling and observations.

Fertilization of nitrogen (N)-limited ecosystems by anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition (N) may promote CO removal from the atmosphere, thereby buffering human effects on global radiative forcing. We used the biogeochemical ecosystem model N14CP, which considers interactions among C (carbon), N and P (phosphorus), driven by a new reconstruction of historical N, to assess the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in British semi-natural landscapes to anthropogenic change. We calculate that increased net primary production due to N has enhanced detrital inputs of C to soils, causing an average increase of 1.

A model of the extent and distribution of woody linear features in rural Great Britain.

Hedges and lines of trees (woody linear features) are important boundaries that connect and enclose habitats, buffer the effects of land management, and enhance biodiversity in increasingly impoverished landscapes. Despite their acknowledged importance in the wider countryside, they are usually not considered in models of landscape function due to their linear nature and the difficulties of acquiring relevant data about their character, extent, and location. We present a model which uses national datasets to describe the distribution of woody linear features along boundaries in Great Britain.

Using Qualitative and Quantitative Methods to Choose a Habitat Quality Metric for Air Pollution Policy Evaluation.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has had detrimental effects on species composition in a range of sensitive habitats, although N deposition can also increase agricultural productivity and carbon storage, and favours a few species considered of importance for conservation. Conservation targets are multiple, and increasingly incorporate services derived from nature as well as concepts of intrinsic value. Priorities vary.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity.

Feather corticosterone content in predatory birds in relation to body condition and hepatic metal concentration.

This study investigated the feasibility of measuring corticosterone in feathers from cryo-archived raptor specimens, in order to provide a retrospective assessment of the activity of the stress axis in relation to contaminant burden. Feather samples were taken from sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus, kestrel Falco tinnunculus, buzzard Buteo buteo, barn owl Tyto alba, and tawny owl Strix aluco and the variation in feather CORT concentrations with respect to species, age, sex, feather position, and body condition was assessed. In sparrowhawks only, variation in feather CORT content was compared with hepatic metal concentrations.