Evaluating the robustness of parameter estimates in cognitive models: A meta-analytic review of multinomial processing tree models across the multiverse of estimation methods.

Researchers have become increasingly aware that data-analysis decisions affect results. Here, we examine this issue systematically for multinomial processing tree (MPT) models, a popular class of cognitive models for categorical data. Specifically, we examine the robustness of MPT model parameter estimates that arise from two important decisions: the level of data aggregation (complete-pooling, no-pooling, or partial-pooling) and the statistical framework (frequentist or Bayesian).

Replicability and reproducibility of predictive models for diagnosis of depression among young adults using Electronic Health Records.

Background: Recent advances in machine learning combined with the growing availability of digitized health records offer new opportunities for improving early diagnosis of depression. An emerging body of research shows that Electronic Health Records can be used to accurately predict cases of depression on the basis of individual's primary care records. The successes of these studies are undeniable, but there is a growing concern that their results may not be replicable, which could cast doubt on their clinical usefulness.

The influence of sleep on subjective well-being: An experience sampling study.

Previous research has associated sleep with subjective well-being (SWB), but less is known about the underlying within-person processes. In the current study, we investigated how self-reported and actigraphy-measured sleep parameters (sleep onset latency, sleep duration, sleep satisfaction, social jetlag, and sleep efficiency) influence SWB (positive affect [PA], negative affect [NA], and life satisfaction [LS]) at the within- and between-person levels. Multilevel analyses of data from 109 university students who completed a 2-week experience sampling study revealed that higher within-person sleep satisfaction was a significant predictor of all three components of next day's SWB (s < .

Are logical intuitions only make-believe? Reexamining the logic-liking effect.

An ongoing debate in the literature on human reasoning concerns whether or not the logical status (valid vs. invalid) of an argument can be intuitively detected. The finding that conclusions of logically valid inferences are liked more compared to conclusions of logically invalid ones-called the logic-liking effect-is one of the most prominent pieces of evidence in support of this notion.

Impact of the "when the fun stops, stop" gambling message on online gambling behaviour: a randomised, online experimental study.

Background: Safer gambling messages are a common freedom-preserving method of protecting individuals from gambling-related harm. Yet, there is little independent and rigorous evidence assessing the effectiveness of safer gambling messages. In our study, we aimed to test the effect of the historically most commonly-used UK safer gambling message on concurrent gambling behaviour of people who gamble in the UK.

A speed-of-play limit reduces gambling expenditure in an online roulette game: Results of an online experiment.

UK online casino games are presently not subject to any limitations on speed-of-play or stakes. One recent policy proposal is to ensure that no online casino game can be played faster than its in-person equivalent. Another policy proposal is to limit the maximum stakes on online casino games to £2, to match the current stake limit on electronic gambling machines.

Testing the foundations of signal detection theory in recognition memory.

Signal detection theory (SDT) plays a central role in the characterization of human judgments in a wide range of domains, most prominently in recognition memory. But despite its success, many of its fundamental properties are often misunderstood, especially when it comes to its testability. The present work examines five main properties that are characteristic of existing SDT models of recognition memory: (a) random-scale representation, (b) latent-variable independence, (c) likelihood-ratio monotonicity, (d) ROC function asymmetry, and (e) nonthreshold representation.

The trajectory of counterfactual simulation in development.

Young children often struggle to answer the question "what would have happened?" particularly in cases where the adult-like "correct" answer has the same outcome as the event that actually occurred. Previous work has assumed that children fail because they cannot engage in accurate counterfactual simulations. Children have trouble considering what to change and what to keep fixed when comparing counterfactual alternatives to reality.

Intraindividual Variability and Temporal Stability of Mid-Sleep on Free and Workdays.

People differ in their sleep timings that are often referred to as a chronotype and can be operationalized as mid-sleep (midpoint between sleep onset and wake-up). The aims of the present studies were to examine intraindividual variability and longer-term temporal stability of mid-sleep on free and workdays, while also considering the effect of age. We used data from a 2-week experience sampling study of British university students (Study 1) and from a panel study of Estonian adults who filled in the Munich Chronotype Questionnaire twice up to 5 years apart (Study 2).

Bias in confidence: A critical test for discrete-state models of change detection.

Ongoing discussions on the nature of storage in visual working memory have mostly focused on 2 theoretical accounts: On one hand we have a discrete-state account, postulating that information in working memory is supported with high fidelity for a limited number of discrete items by a given number of "slots," with no information being retained beyond these. In contrast with this all-or-nothing view, we have a continuous account arguing that information can be degraded in a continuous manner, reflecting the amount of resources dedicated to each item. It turns out that the core tenets of this discrete-state account constrain the way individuals can express confidence in their judgments, excluding the possibility of biased confidence judgments.

A linear threshold model for optimal stopping behavior.

In many real-life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making it necessary to search sequentially through them, often without a chance to return to a rejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that is above a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicit decision-making strategies by humans vary but largely diverge from this optimal strategy.

Two distinct mechanisms of selection in working memory: Additive last-item and retro-cue benefits.

In working memory research, individual items are sometimes said to be in the "focus of attention". According to one view, this occurs for the last item in a sequentially presented list (last-item benefit). According to a second view, this occurs when items are externally cued during the retention interval (retro-cue benefit).

Characterizing belief bias in syllogistic reasoning: A hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis of ROC data.

The belief-bias effect is one of the most-studied biases in reasoning. A recent study of the phenomenon using the signal detection theory (SDT) model called into question all theoretical accounts of belief bias by demonstrating that belief-based differences in the ability to discriminate between valid and invalid syllogisms may be an artifact stemming from the use of inappropriate linear measurement models such as analysis of variance (Dube et al., Psychological Review, 117(3), 831-863, 2010).

The effects of refreshing and elaboration on working memory performance, and their contributions to long-term memory formation.

Refreshing and elaboration are cognitive processes assumed to underlie verbal working-memory maintenance and assumed to support long-term memory formation. Whereas refreshing refers to the attentional focussing on representations, elaboration refers to linking representations in working memory into existing semantic networks. We measured the impact of instructed refreshing and elaboration on working and long-term memory separately, and investigated to what extent both processes are distinct in their contributions to working as well as long-term memory.

Conditionals and inferential connections: A hypothetical inferential theory.

Intuition suggests that for a conditional to be evaluated as true, there must be some kind of connection between its component clauses. In this paper, we formulate and test a new psychological theory to account for this intuition. We combined previous semantic and psychological theorizing to propose that the key to the intuition is a relevance-driven, satisficing-bounded inferential connection between antecedent and consequent.

Forgetting emotional material in working memory.

Proactive interference (PI) is the tendency for information learned earlier to interfere with more recently learned information. In the present study, we induced PI by presenting items from the same category over several trials. This results in a build-up of PI and reduces the discriminability of the items in each subsequent trial.

Relevance and Reason Relations.

This paper examines precursors and consequents of perceived relevance of a proposition A for a proposition C. In Experiment 1, we test Spohn's (2012) assumption that ∆P = P(C|A) - P(C|~A) is a good predictor of ratings of perceived relevance and reason relations, and we examine whether it is a better predictor than the difference measure (P(C|A) - P(C)). In Experiment 2, we examine the effects of relevance on probabilistic coherence in Cruz, Baratgin, Oaksford, and Over's (2015) uncertain "and-to-if" inferences.

Probabilistic conditional reasoning: Disentangling form and content with the dual-source model.

The present research examines descriptive models of probabilistic conditional reasoning, that is of reasoning from uncertain conditionals with contents about which reasoners have rich background knowledge. According to our dual-source model, two types of information shape such reasoning: knowledge-based information elicited by the contents of the material and content-independent information derived from the form of inferences. Two experiments implemented manipulations that selectively influenced the model parameters for the knowledge-based information, the relative weight given to form-based versus knowledge-based information, and the parameters for the form-based information, validating the psychological interpretation of these parameters.

The relevance effect and conditionals.

More than a decade of research has found strong evidence for P(if A, then C)=P(C|A) ("the Equation"). We argue, however, that this hypothesis provides an overly simplified picture due to its inability to account for relevance. We manipulated relevance in the evaluation of the probability and acceptability of indicative conditionals and found that relevance moderates the effect of P(C|A).

Does Global and Local Vision Have an Impact on Creative and Analytic Thought? Two Failed Replications.

According to GLOMOsys (the GLObal versus LOcal processing MOdel, a systems account), an important distinction is that between a local and a global processing system: The former processes information in parts, the latter processes it globally. These systems can be activated by perceptual processing and carry over to subsequent conceptual processing, in particular to analytical and creative thought. A conceptual and a high-powered close replication of previously reported studies test predictions of GLOMOsys for analytical thought and for analytical and creative thought, respectively.

Turn around to have a look? Spatial referencing in dorsal vs. frontal settings in cross-linguistic comparison.

When referring to an object in relation to another, speakers of many languages can adopt a relative frame of reference (FoR). Following Levinson (2003), this kind of FoR can be established by projecting an observer's perspective onto the ground object either by translation, reflection, or rotation. So far, research on spatial FoRs has largely ignored the extent of variation in which of these projections are preferred generally, and specifically what kind of FoR is established for spatial arrays in one's back.

ROC residuals in signal-detection models of recognition memory.

A long-standing debate in the recognition-memory literature concerns which model provides the best account. Prominent candidates in this debate are the unequal-variance signal detection model (UVSD), the dual-process model (DPSD), and two versions of the mixture model (MSD). The present work evaluates a recently proposed ROC-based method for comparing these models (Dede, Squire, & Wixted, Neuropsychologia, 54, 51-56, 2014).