Biological invasions and epidemics with nonlocal diffusion along a line.

The goal of this work is to understand and quantify how a line with nonlocal diffusion given by an integral enhances a reaction-diffusion process occurring in the surrounding plane. This is part of a long term programme where we aim at modelling, in a mathematically rigorous way, the effect of transportation networks on the speed of biological invasions or propagation of epidemics. We prove the existence of a global propagation speed and characterise in terms of the parameters of the system the situations where such a speed is boosted by the presence of the line.

Epidemic modeling with heterogeneity and social diffusion.

We propose and analyze a family of epidemiological models that extend the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SIR)-like framework to account for dynamic heterogeneity in infection risk. The family of models takes the form of a system of reaction-diffusion equations given populations structured by heterogeneous susceptibility to infection. These models describe the evolution of population-level macroscopic quantities S, I, R as in the classical case coupled with a microscopic variable f, giving the distribution of individual behavior in terms of exposure to contagion in the population of susceptibles.

Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics.

Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France.

Propagation of Epidemics Along Lines with Fast Diffusion.

It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of propagation of epidemics which exhibits this effect and allows for a quantitative analysis.

Influence of a road on a population in an ecological niche facing climate change.

We introduce a model designed to account for the influence of a line with fast diffusion-such as a road or another transport network-on the dynamics of a population in an ecological niche.This model consists of a system of coupled reaction-diffusion equations set on domains with different dimensions (line / plane). We first show that, in a stationary climate, the presence of the line is always deleterious and can even lead the population to extinction.

Predator-Prey Models with Competition: The Emergence of Territoriality.

We introduce a model aimed at shedding light on the emergence of territorial behaviors in predators and on the formation of packs. We consider the situation of predators competing for the same prey (or spatially distributed resource). We observe that strong competition between groups of predators leads to the formation of territories.

Persistence criteria for populations with non-local dispersion.

In this article, we analyse the non-local model: [Formula: see text]where J is a positive continuous dispersal kernel and f(x, u) is a heterogeneous KPP type non-linearity describing the growth rate of the population. The ecological niche of the population is assumed to be bounded (i.e.

A non-local free boundary problem arising in a theory of financial bubbles.

We consider an evolution non-local free boundary problem that arises in the modelling of speculative bubbles. The solution of the model is the speculative component in the price of an asset. In the framework of viscosity solutions, we show the existence and uniqueness of the solution.

Self-organization versus top-down planning in the evolution of a city.

Interventions of central, top-down planning are serious limitations to the possibility of modelling the dynamics of cities. An example is the city of Paris (France), which during the 19th century experienced large modifications supervised by a central authority, the 'Haussmann period'. In this article, we report an empirical analysis of more than 200 years (1789-2010) of the evolution of the street network of Paris.

The influence of a line with fast diffusion on Fisher-KPP propagation.

We propose here a new model to describe biological invasions in the plane when a strong diffusion takes place on a line. We establish the main properties of the system, and also derive the asymptotic speed of spreading in the direction of the line. For low diffusion, the line has no effect, whereas, past a threshold, the line enhances global diffusion in the plane and the propagation is directed by diffusion on the line.

Disentangling collective trends from local dynamics.

A single social phenomenon (such as crime, unemployment, or birthrate) can be observed through temporal series corresponding to units at different levels (i.e., cities, regions, and countries).

Analysis of the periodically fragmented environment model: I--species persistence.

This paper is concerned with the study of the stationary solutions of the equation [Equation: see text] where the diffusion matrix A and the reaction term f are periodic in x. We prove existence and uniqueness results for the stationary equation and we then analyze the behaviour of the solutions of the evolution equation for large times. These results are expressed by a condition on the sign of the first eigenvalue of the associated linearized problem with periodicity condition.