Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021.

Methods: We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.

Automated landmark identification on cone-beam computed tomography: Accuracy and reliability.

Objectives: To evaluate the accuracy and reliability of a fully automated landmark identification (ALI) system as a tool for automatic landmark location compared with human judges.

Materials And Methods: A total of 100 cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images were collected. After the calibration procedure, two human judges identified 53 landmarks in the x, y, and z coordinate planes on CBCTs using Checkpoint Software (Stratovan Corporation, Davis, Calif).

Erratum: Azimuthal Anisotropy of K_{S}^{0} and Λ+Λ[over ¯] Production at Midrapidity from Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s]_{NN}=130 GeV [Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 132301 (2002)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases.

Erratum: Azimuthal Anisotropy at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider: The First and Fourth Harmonics [Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 062301 (2004)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.

Prospects for Observing and Localizing Gravitational-Wave Transients with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo.

We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy.

GW150914: Implications for the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background from Binary Black Holes.

The LIGO detection of the gravitational wave transient GW150914, from the inspiral and merger of two black holes with masses ≳30M_{⊙}, suggests a population of binary black holes with relatively high mass. This observation implies that the stochastic gravitational-wave background from binary black holes, created from the incoherent superposition of all the merging binaries in the Universe, could be higher than previously expected. Using the properties of GW150914, we estimate the energy density of such a background from binary black holes.

Cross sections and transverse single-spin asymmetries in forward neutral-pion production from proton collisions at sqrt[s]=200 GeV.

Measurements of the production of forward high-energy pi(0) mesons from transversely polarized proton collisions at sqrt[s]=200 GeV are reported. The cross section is generally consistent with next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The analyzing power is small at x(F) below about 0.

Identified particle distributions in pp and Au+Au collisions at square root of (sNN)=200 GeV.

Transverse mass and rapidity distributions for charged pions, charged kaons, protons, and antiprotons are reported for square root of [sNN]=200 GeV pp and Au+Au collisions at Relativistic Heary Ion Collider (RHIC). Chemical and kinetic equilibrium model fits to our data reveal strong radial flow and long duration from chemical to kinetic freeze-out in central Au+Au collisions. The chemical freeze-out temperature appears to be independent of initial conditions at RHIC energies.

Particle-type dependence of azimuthal anisotropy and nuclear modification of particle production in Au+Au collisions at square root of sNN=200 GeV.

We present STAR measurements of the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v(2) and the binary-collision scaled centrality ratio R(CP) for kaons and lambdas (Lambda+Lambda) at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at square root of s(NN)=200 GeV. In combination, the v(2) and R(CP) particle-type dependencies contradict expectations from partonic energy loss followed by standard fragmentation in vacuum. We establish p(T) approximately 5 GeV/c as the value where the centrality dependent baryon enhancement ends.

Azimuthal anisotropy at the relativistic heavy ion collider: the first and fourth harmonics.

We report the first observations of the first harmonic (directed flow, v(1)) and the fourth harmonic (v(4)), in the azimuthal distribution of particles with respect to the reaction plane in Au+Au collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Both measurements were done taking advantage of the large elliptic flow (v(2)) generated at RHIC. From the correlation of v(2) with v(1) it is determined that v(2) is positive, or in-plane.

Pion-Kaon correlations in central Au+Au collisions at square root [sNN] = 130 GeV.

Pion-kaon correlation functions are constructed from central Au+Au STAR data taken at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV by the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The results suggest that pions and kaons are not emitted at the same average space-time point. Space-momentum correlations, i.

Three-pion Hanbury Brown-Twiss correlations in relativistic heavy-ion collisions from the STAR experiment.

Data from the first physics run at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV, have been analyzed by the STAR Collaboration using three-pion correlations with charged pions to study whether pions are emitted independently at freeze-out. We have made a high-statistics measurement of the three-pion correlation function and calculated the normalized three-particle correlator to obtain a quantitative measurement of the degree of chaoticity of the pion source. It is found that the degree of chaoticity seems to increase with increasing particle multiplicity.

Transverse-momentum and collision-energy dependence of high-pT hadron suppression in Au+Au collisions at ultrarelativistic energies.

We report high statistics measurements of inclusive charged hadron production in Au+Au and p+p collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV. A large, approximately constant hadron suppression is observed in central Au+Au collisions for 5 View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Evidence from d+Au measurements for final-state suppression of high-p(T) hadrons in Au+Au collisions at RHIC.

We report measurements of single-particle inclusive spectra and two-particle azimuthal distributions of charged hadrons at high transverse momentum (high p(T)) in minimum bias and central d+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV. The inclusive yield is enhanced in d+Au collisions relative to binary-scaled p+p collisions, while the two-particle azimuthal distributions are very similar to those observed in p+p collisions. These results demonstrate that the strong suppression of the inclusive yield and back-to-back correlations at high p(T) previously observed in central Au+Au collisions are due to final-state interactions with the dense medium generated in such collisions.

Narrowing of the balance function with centrality in Au+Au collisions at the square root of SNN = 130 GeV.

The balance function is a new observable based on the principle that charge is locally conserved when particles are pair produced. Balance functions have been measured for charged particle pairs and identified charged pion pairs in Au+Au collisions at the square root of SNN = 130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using STAR. Balance functions for peripheral collisions have widths consistent with model predictions based on a superposition of nucleon-nucleon scattering.

Disappearance of back-to-back high-pT hadron correlations in central Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s NN ] =200 GeV.

Azimuthal correlations for large transverse momentum charged hadrons have been measured over a wide pseudorapidity range and full azimuth in Au+Au and p+p collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV. The small-angle correlations observed in p+p collisions and at all centralities of Au+Au collisions are characteristic of hard-scattering processes previously observed in high-energy collisions. A strong back-to-back correlation exists for p+p and peripheral Au+Au.

Azimuthal anisotropy and correlations in the hard scattering regime at RHIC.

Azimuthal anisotropy (v(2)) and two-particle angular correlations of high p(T) charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high p(T) partons. The monotonic rise of v(2)(p(T)) for p(T)<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations.

Coherent rho(0) production in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions.

The STAR Collaboration reports the first observation of exclusive rho(0) photoproduction, AuAu-->AuAurho(0), and rho(0) production accompanied by mutual nuclear Coulomb excitation, AuAu-->Au*Au*rho(0), in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The rho(0) have low transverse momenta, consistent with coherent coupling to both nuclei. The cross sections at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV agree with theoretical predictions treating rho(0) production and Coulomb excitation as independent processes.

Centrality dependence of high-p(T) hadron suppression in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV.

Inclusive transverse momentum distributions of charged hadrons within 0.2 View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Azimuthal anisotropy of K(0)(S) and Lambda+Lambda production at midrapidity from Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV.

We report STAR results on the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v(2) for strange particles K(0)(S), Lambda, and Lambda at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The value of v(2) as a function of transverse momentum, p(t), of the produced particle and collision centrality is presented for both particles up to p(t) approximately 3.0 GeV/c.

Midrapidity Lambda and Lambda(macro) production in Au+Au collisions at the square root of [s(NN)]=130 GeV.

We report the first measurement of strange (Lambda) and antistrange (Lambda macro) baryon production from square root of [s(NN)]=130 GeV Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Rapidity density and transverse mass distributions at midrapidity are presented as a function of centrality. The yield of Lambda and Lambda; hyperons is found to be approximately proportional to the number of negative hadrons.

Measurement of inclusive antiprotons from Au+Au collisions at square root of s(NN) = 130 GeV.

We report the first measurement of inclusive antiproton production at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at square root of s(NN) = 130 GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The antiproton transverse mass distributions in the measured transverse momentum range of 0.25 View Article and Find Full Text PDF