Rabies control in Bangladesh and prediction of human rabies cases by 2030: a One Health approach.

Background: Bangladesh is making progress toward achieving zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, a global goal set in 2015.

Methods: Drawing from multiple datasets, including patient immunisation record books and mass dog vaccination (MDV) databases, we conducted a comprehensive analysis between 2011 and 2023 to understand the effectiveness of rabies control programmes and predict human rabies cases in Bangladesh by 2030 using time-series forecasting models. We also compared rabies virus sequences from GenBank in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries.

Trends and clinico-epidemiological features of human rabies cases in Bangladesh 2006-2018.

Vaccinating dogs against rabies is an effective means of reducing human rabies. We subjected 1327 clinically diagnosed human rabies death and mass dog vaccination (MDV) data during 2006-2018 to quantify the impacts of MDV on human rabies incidence in Bangladesh and a subset of rabies death data (422) for clinico-epidemiological analysis. A positive and increasing trend of MDV (p = 0.