Chronic back pain prevalence at small area level in England - the design and validation of a 2-stage static spatial microsimulation model.

Spatially disaggregated estimates provide valuable insights into the nature of a disease. They highlight inequalities, aid public health planning and identify avenues for further research. Spatial microsimulation is advantageous in that it can be used to create large microdata sets with intact microlevel relationships between variables, which allows analysis of relationships between variables locally.

Understanding the burden of chronic back pain: a spatial microsimulation of chronic back pain at small area level across England.

Purpose: Chronic back pain (CBP) carries a significant burden. Understanding how and why CBP prevalence varies spatially, as well as the potential impact of policies to decrease CBP would prove valuable for public health planning. This study aims to simulate and map the prevalence of CBP at ward-level across England, identify associations which may explain spatial variation, and explore 'what-if' scenarios for the impact of policies to increase physical activity (PA) on CBP.