Projected increase in droughts over the Arabian Peninsula and associated uncertainties.

The Arabian Peninsula (AP) has been reported to experience increasing drought in recent decades. With this background, this study evaluates best performing Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for historical (1985-2014) simulations and future drought projections across the AP until 2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). We assess uncertainties from model differences, scenarios, timescales, and methods.

Spatiotemporal variability of hydro-meteorological droughts over the Arabian Peninsula and associated mechanisms.

This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of drought and associated physical processes over the Arabian Peninsula (AP). For this purpose, we computed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the period 1951-2020 using the Climate Research Unit and fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis datasets. By applying rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis on the SPEI data, we identified four homogeneous and coherent drought regions.