Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the acceleration of forest change will continue in the future, or whether downregulating feedbacks will eventually decouple forest dynamics from climate change. Here we studied future forest dynamics at Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means of a process-based forest landscape model, simulating an ensemble of 22 climate projections until the end of the 21st century.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIncreasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFGroundwater pollution threatens human and ecosystem health in many regions around the globe. Fast flow to the groundwater through focused recharge is known to transmit short-lived pollutants into carbonate aquifers, endangering the quality of groundwaters where one quarter of the world's population lives. However, the large-scale impact of such focused recharge on groundwater quality remains poorly understood.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWest Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region's potential to meet future food needs.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn the future the Sudanian savanna - one of West Africa's high-potential "bread baskets" - will likely face shorter rainy seasons with more extreme rains and droughts. That could have serious impacts on the vegetation and its carbon dioxide (CO) exchange with potentially increasing CO emissions accelerating climate warming. Understanding how the CO fluxes in this area respond to environmental variables, in particular rain events, is essential, but available data are scarce.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: The terrestrial land surface in West Africa is made up of several types of savanna ecosystems differing in land use changes which modulate gas exchanges between their vegetation and the overlying atmosphere. This study compares diurnal and seasonal estimates of CO fluxes from three contrasting ecosystems, a grassland, a mixture of fallow and cropland, and nature reserve in the Sudanian Savanna and relate them to water availability and land use characteristics.
Results: Over the study period, and for the three study sites, low soil moisture availability, high vapour pressure deficit and low ecosystem respiration were prevalent during the dry season (November to March), but the contrary occurred during the rainy season (May to October).