Evaluating compliance with track and trace and other regulations in Pakistan's cigarette market.

Background: To control the illicit cigarette market, the government of Pakistan adopted a Tracking and Tracing System (TTS) that was fully operational by July 2022, despite many roadblocks. By this date, major tobacco companies had either registered their brands with the tax authority and/or installed TTS.

Methods: This paper is the first to evaluate the degree of compliance with the TTS by evaluating the extent and nature of illicit trade in tobacco products.

Tobacco Taxation in Spain: A Tax Laggard With a Brighter Possible Future.

Introduction: In recent years tobacco taxation in Spain has regressed, with its Tobacconomics tax scorecard falling from 3.9 points (out of 5) in 2014, to only 2.625 in 2020.

Improving estimates of the illicit cigarette trade through collaboration: lessons from two studies of Malaysia.

This paper critically analyses contrasting estimates of Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade in 2011, 2015 and 2019 by Bui and Koya who previously produced independent estimates at about the same time using tax gap analysis. Collaboration between the two authors' teams emerged due to the discrepancies in their results, generating this paper to explore the methodological issues identified and hence produce revised estimates of the rate of illicit. Key issues identified were: Bui 's assessment of legally imported cigarettes impacting all years; their exclusion of ad valorem duty affecting the 2011 and 2015 estimates; Koya overlooked the value of cigarettes for export market in their ad valorem calculation and used the sales value of imported tobacco/tobacco products, not just cigarettes, both of which impact estimates for 2011 and 2015.

Smoking prevention that increases tax revenue: tobacco taxes in the Czech Republic 2004-2020.

Objectives: Increasing tobacco excise tax is one of the most effective smoking-prevention tools. The aim of the study is to assess the use of this tool in the Czech Republic (CR) by studying trends in cigarette taxes, prices, tax revenue, and the affordability of cigarettes in the CR.

Methods: Data on cigarette consumption, their tax rates, price, and tax revenue in the CR for 2004-2020 come from multiple sources.

An overlooked market: loose cigarettes, informal vendors and their implications for tobacco taxation.

Objective: To examine the features of markets for loose cigarettes in several low-income and middle-income countries and their effects on tobacco control policies, particularly taxation.

Design: An analysis of survey data targeting people who smoke in two African, one Southeast Asian and two South Asian countries and retailers across 16 African countries to study loose cigarette markets and examine how prices in these markets move relative to the prices for cigarette packs.

Results: Markets for loose cigarettes are large, and their consumer base tends to differ from the wider population of people who smoke.

Response of legal and illegal cigarette prices to a tax increase in Ethiopia.

Background: In 2020, Ethiopia passed a landmark tax proclamation implementing an evidence-based mixed excise system aimed at curbing tobacco use. This study evaluates the impact of the tax increase of more than 600% on both legal and illegal cigarette prices in order to gauge the impact of the tax reform in the presence of a sizeable illicit cigarette market.

Methods: Data on 1774 cigarette prices were obtained from retailers during Empty Cigarette Pack Surveys in the capital and major regional cities conducted in 2018 and 2022.

Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey.

Objective: This study aims to measure the extent of illicit cigarette consumption from single stick sales, to determine the nature and types of illicit cigarettes present in Ghana, and to identify the factors associated with illicit cigarette consumption in Ghana.

Design: A cross-sectional study using empty cigarette packs generated by 1 day's single stick cigarette sales collected from cigarette vendors.

Setting: Five large cities (Accra, Kumasi, Takoradi, Tamale and Bolgatanga) and three border towns (Aflao, Paga/Hamele and Elubo) in the northern, middle and coastal belt of Ghana.

Effect of cigarette prices on cigarette consumption in Ghana.

Introduction: Noncommunicable diseases are on the rise globally, with tobacco consumption being a major risk factor. Reducing tobacco consumption is an important step towards reducing the incidence and prevalence of many noncommunicable diseases. Tax and price measures have been proposed as tobacco control tools.

Estimating the Size of Illicit Tobacco Market in Lithuania: Results from the Discarded Pack Collection Method.

Introduction: For decades in Lithuania, the threat of illicit trade has been used to weaken evidence-based tobacco-control policies and to undermine efforts to reduce smoking prevalence and its attributable burden, while also depriving the government of much-needed tax revenue. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in Lithuania using data from a nationally representative discarded pack collection.

Aims And Methods: The study employed a two-stage cluster design by first randomly selecting 65 well-defined population settlements (30 cities and 35 townships), representing both urban and rural areas, in all 10 counties in Lithuania.

Magnitude of illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia: empirical evidence compared with industry studies.

Background: The tobacco industry contends that the illicit market in Malaysia occupies 62.3% of the total cigarette market. If this is true, Malaysia has one of the largest shares of illicit cigarettes in the world.

How much to pay for a track and trace system: a simulation model for South Africa.

Background: The illicit trade in tobacco reduces the effectiveness of tobacco-control policies. Independent track and trace (T&T) systems are considered one of the most effective measures available to reduce the illicit tobacco trade. South Africa, with an illicit trade estimated at over 35% of the total market, is yet to implement a T&T system.

Effect of relative income price on smoking initiation among adolescents in Ghana: evidence from pseudo-longitudinal data.

Objective: Many smokers initiate smoking during adolescence. Making tobacco products less affordable is one of the best ways to control tobacco use. Studies on the effect of relative income price (RIP (ie, affordability)) of cigarettes on smoking initiation are scarce in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where data are limited.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation in Sierra Leone: An Exploratory Study.

This study examines the effect of cigarette prices on the likelihood of experimental smoking among adolescents in Sierra Leone. The study links data from the 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) to price data covering 2008-2017 obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO). After employing duration analysis techniques, we find that increases in cigarette prices are associated with a lower probability of smoking experimentation, with an estimated price elasticity of -1.

Is Illicit Cigarette Market a Threat to Tobacco Control in Ethiopia?

Introduction: The presence of an illicit cigarette trade is used as an argument in Ethiopia to halt pro-health tobacco tax policies. The National Tobacco Enterprise (NTE) recently reported that the illicit cigarette market accounts for over 61% of the total market, and over 90% in the Eastern part of Ethiopia.

Aims And Methods: The aim of the study is to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Ethiopia.

Tobacco industry compliance with the EU track and tracing system in Lithuania.

Background: The European Union (EU)-wide tobacco tracking and tracing system (T&T system) became operational on 20 May 2019, allowing a transitional period and gradual installation of the system until May 2020. This study attempts to assess the EU T&T system using a sample of discarded cigarette packs collected in Lithuania.

Methods: The empty pack survey was conducted between September 2019 and September 2020, covering both the transitional period and the period of full implementation.

Illicit cigarette trade in the cities of Pakistan: comparing findings between the consumer and waste recycle store surveys.

Background: Concerns about the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade have prevented the Government of Pakistan from increasing tobacco taxes. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarettes sold in Pakistani cities. Moreover, we compared two methods for collecting cigarette packs and investigated if the illicit cigarette trade equates to tax evasion.

Understanding Period Poverty: Socio-Economic Inequalities in Menstrual Hygiene Management in Eight Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Menstrual hygiene management and health is increasingly gaining policy importance in a bid to promote dignity, gender equality and reproductive health. Effective and adequate menstrual hygiene management requires women and girls to have access to their menstrual health materials and products of choice, but also extends into having private, clean and safe spaces for using these materials. The paper provides empirical evidence of the inequality in menstrual hygiene management in Kinshasa (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rajasthan (India), Indonesia, Nigeria and Uganda using concentration indices and decomposition methods.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa.

There are several ways to measure the illicit cigarette market. In South Africa, different methods were used to triangulate results. The aim of this paper is to assist researchers to decide which method is most suitable to their context, especially for countries that do not have security features on cigarette packs (eg, tax stamps).

Analysing the trend of illicit tobacco in the Philippines from 1998 to 2018.

Tobacco taxation is the most effective measure to reduce cigarette consumption and consequently improve public health outcomes. It is also an important source of government revenue. The presence of an illicit tobacco market diminishes the public health and fiscal gains of cigarette levies by making cheaper non-taxed cigarettes available.

The Economic Cost of Smoking in South Africa, 2016.

Introduction: Chronic, noncommunicable diseases are on the rise globally, with tobacco consumption being an important contributing risk factor. These increases result in significant economic costs due to increased healthcare costs, productive lives lost, and productive days lost due to illness. Estimates of these economic costs are scarce in low- and middle-income countries.

Estimating the Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Bangladesh: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study.

The illicit tobacco trade undermines the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies; increases the availability of cheap cigarettes, which, in turn, increases tobacco use and tobacco related deaths; and causes huge revenue losses to governments. There is limited evidence on the extent of illicit tobacco trade particularly cigarettes in Bangladesh. The paper presents the protocol for a mixed-methods study to estimate the extent of illicit cigarette trade in Bangladesh.

Determinants of smoking intensity in South Africa: Evidence from township communities.

In order to analyze the smoking patterns in economically disadvantaged communities in South Africa, this paper examines the determinants of smoking intensity, using pooled data on price and non-price determinants of smoking from two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018 to investigate the drivers of conditional cigarette demand among daily smokers. The analysis was done using a negative binomial regression. The results show that smokers reduce the number of cigarettes smoked daily when cigarette prices increase.

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships.

Background: We estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in low socioeconomic areas in South Africa before and after a tax increase. In 2018, the real excise tax increased by 3% and the value-added tax (VAT) rate increased from 14% to 15%. Thus, the real tax on cigarettes increased by 4%.