Estimates of resource use in the public-sector health-care system and the effect of strengthening health-care services in Malawi during 2015-19: a modelling study (Thanzi La Onse).

Background: In all health-care systems, decisions need to be made regarding allocation of available resources. Evidence is needed for these decisions, especially in low-income countries. We aimed to estimate how health-care resources provided by the public sector were used in Malawi during 2015-19 and to estimate the effects of strengthening health-care services.

Direct and indirect effects of hepatitis B vaccination in four low- and middle-income countries.

Population-level vaccination effects of the hepatitis B vaccine were investigated in four low- and middle-income countries with different levels of vertical and horizontal transmission. Indirect vaccination effects constitute a large proportion of overall vaccination effects of the vaccination programmes in all four countries (over 70% by 2030 in all four countries). However, countries with higher levels of vertical transmission benefit less from indirect vaccination effects from the infant hepatitis B vaccine series during the first decades of the vaccination programme, making the birth dose vaccine more important in these countries.

A new approach to Health Benefits Package design: an application of the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi.

An efficient allocation of limited resources in low-income settings offers the opportunity to improve population-health outcomes given the available health system capacity. Efforts to achieve this are often framed through the lens of "health benefits packages" (HBPs), which seek to establish which services the public healthcare system should include in its provision. Analytic approaches widely used to weigh evidence in support of different interventions and inform the broader HBP deliberative process however have limitations.

Health workforce needs in Malawi: analysis of the Thanzi La Onse integrated epidemiological model of care.

Background: To make the best use of health resources, it is crucial to understand the healthcare needs of a population-including how needs will evolve and respond to changing epidemiological context and patient behaviour-and how this compares to the capabilities to deliver healthcare with the existing workforce. Existing approaches to planning either rely on using observed healthcare demand from a fixed historical period or using models to estimate healthcare needs within a narrow domain (e.g.

Assessing the effect of health system resources on HIV and tuberculosis programmes in Malawi: a modelling study.

Background: Malawi is progressing towards UNAIDS and WHO End TB Strategy targets to eliminate HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the prospective effect of achieving these goals on the health and health system of the country and the influence of consumable constraints.

Methods: In this modelling study, we used the Thanzi la Onse (Health for All) model, which is an individual-based multi-disease simulation model that simulates HIV and tuberculosis transmission, alongside other diseases (eg, malaria, non-communicable diseases, and maternal diseases), and gates access to essential medicines according to empirical estimates of availability.

Appraising the HIV Prevention Cascade methodology to improve HIV prevention targets: Lessons learned from a general population pilot study in east Zimbabwe.

Introduction: Multiple HIV Prevention Cascades (HPC) formulations have been proposed to assist advocacy, monitoring of progress of HIV prevention implementation and research to identify ways to increase use of HIV prevention methods. Schaefer and colleagues proposed a unifying formulation suitable for widespread use across different populations which could be used for routine monitoring or advocacy. Robust methods for defining and interpreting this HPC formulation using real world data is required.

Using economic analysis to inform health resource allocation: lessons from Malawi.

Despite making remarkable strides in improving health outcomes, Malawi faces concerns about sustaining the progress achieved due to limited fiscal space and donor dependency. The imperative for efficient health spending becomes evident, necessitating strategic allocation of resources to areas with the greatest impact on mortality and morbidity. Health benefits packages hold promise in supporting efficient resource allocation.

Factors associated with medical consumable availability in level 1 facilities in Malawi: a secondary analysis of a facility census.

Background: Medical consumable stock-outs negatively affect health outcomes not only by impeding or delaying the effective delivery of services but also by discouraging patients from seeking care. Consequently, supply chain strengthening is being adopted as a key component of national health strategies. However, evidence on the factors associated with increased consumable availability is limited.

Outbreak Linked to Morel Mushroom Exposure - Montana, 2023.

During March-April 2023, a total of 51 persons reported mild to severe gastrointestinal illness after eating at restaurant A in Bozeman, Montana. The outbreak resulted in multiple severe outcomes, including three hospitalizations and two deaths. After an inspection and temporary restaurant closure, the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services and Montana's Gallatin City-County Health Department collaborated with CDC to conduct a matched case-control study among restaurant patrons to help identify the source of the outbreak.

The value-based price of transformative gene therapy for sickle cell disease: a modeling analysis.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited, progressively debilitating blood disorder. Emerging gene therapies (GTx) may lead to a complete remission, the benefits of such can only be realized if GTx is affordable and accessible in the low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) with the greatest SCD burden. To estimate the health impacts and country-specific value-based prices (VBP) of a future gene therapy for SCD using a cost-utility model framework.

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care.

Methods: We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics.

Do risk, time and prosocial preferences predict risky sexual behaviour of youths in a low-income, high-risk setting?

Young people in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly at high risk of sexually transmitted infections. Little is known about their preferences and even less about their association with risky sexual behaviour. We conducted incentivized economic experiments to measure risk, time and prosocial preferences in Zimbabwe.

The long-term impact and value of curative therapy for HIV: a modelling analysis.

Introduction: Curative therapies (CTx) to achieve durable remission of HIV disease without the need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are currently being explored. Our objective was to model the long-term health and cost outcomes of HIV in various countries, the impact of future CTx on those outcomes and the country-specific value-based prices (VBPs) of CTx.

Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the future health economic impacts of a hypothetical CTx for HIV in countries with pre-existing access to ART (CTx+ART), compared to ART alone.

Acute Kidney Injury Among Children Likely Associated with Diethylene Glycol-Contaminated Medications - The Gambia, June-September 2022.

On July 26, 2022, a pediatric nephrologist alerted The Gambia's Ministry of Health (MoH) to a cluster of cases of acute kidney injury (AKI) among young children at the country's sole teaching hospital, and on August 23, 2022, MoH requested assistance from CDC. CDC epidemiologists arrived in The Gambia, a West African country, on September 16 to assist MoH in characterizing the illness, describing the epidemiology, and identifying potential causal factors and their sources. Investigators reviewed medical records and interviewed caregivers to characterize patients' symptoms and identify exposures.

Global reporting of progress towards elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C.

Background: The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. Achieving and measuring the 2030 targets requires a substantial increase in the capacity to test and treat viral hepatitis infections and a mechanism to monitor the progress of hepatitis elimination. This study aimed to identify the gaps in data availability or quality and create a new mechanism to monitor the progress of hepatitis elimination.

Cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies in a screening and treatment programme for hepatitis B in The Gambia.

Background: Clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is complex and access to antiviral treatment remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. International guidelines recommend monitoring at least annually for disease progression among HBV-infected people not meeting treatment criteria at initial diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring.

Considering equity in priority setting using transmission models: Recommendations and data needs.

Objectives: Disease transmission models are used in impact assessment and economic evaluations of infectious disease prevention and treatment strategies, prominently so in the COVID-19 response. These models rarely consider dimensions of equity relating to the differential health burden between individuals and groups. We describe concepts and approaches which are useful when considering equity in the priority setting process, and outline the technical choices concerning model structure, outputs, and data requirements needed to use transmission models in analyses of health equity.

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease among individuals with hepatic steatosis.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in adults with hepatic steatosis (HS). However, risk factors for CVD in HS are unknown. We aimed to identify factors associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with HS.

Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics.

Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they do not allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together.

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

Background: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective.

Methods: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa.

Socio-demographic factors associated with early antenatal care visits among pregnant women in Malawi: 2004-2016.

Introduction: In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits ("ANC4+") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations.