Can experienced clinicians predict the outcome of lupus nephritis?

The ability of four experienced clinicians to predict short-term outcome (serum creatinine level at 1 year) and long-term outcome (renal insufficiency) was evaluated in 87 patients with lupus nephritis. The correlational agreement and the accuracy of their predictions were contrasted with the actual outcomes observed and with statistically generated prognostic regression models. In contrast to previously published data, all four clinicians predicted both short-term outcomes (P < 0.

Predictors of one year outcome in lupus nephritis: the importance of renal biopsy.

The short-term prognosis of lupus nephritis was evaluated by assessing serum creatinine 12 months after renal biopsy in 87 patients with lupus nephritis. On univariate analysis, significant clinical and laboratory predictors of this outcome included clinical signs of renal injury (serum creatinine, 24-hour urinary protein, prolonged renal disease, nephrotic syndrome, serum albumin), as well as thrombocytopenia, older age, and coexisting illness or hypertension at the time of biopsy. On renal biopsy, diffuse proliferative nephritis, higher activity, chronicity, or tubulointerstitial scores, or subendothelial or subepithelial electron dense deposits predicted a higher serum creatinine 12 months after biopsy.

Cluster analysis of an insulin-dependent diabetic cohort towards the definition of clinical subtypes.

Clinical and biochemical data on 111 consecutive insulin-dependent diabetic children enrolled in a longitudinal prospective study were analyzed to determine if more than one clinical expression of Type I diabetes exists. Use of multivariate statistical methods, including Correspondence Analysis, kappa-means clustering and RECPAM (RECursive Partition and AMalgamation), show that there are two well differentiated clinical expressions of IDDM each characterized by a cluster. One is characterized by later age, less severe onset, longer symptom duration, less beta-cell disappearance after 12 months, more females; the other by earlier age, more sudden and severe onset, DR 3/4, earlier disappearance of beta-cell function and more males.