Cross entropy and log likelihood ratio cost as performance measures for multi-conclusion categorical outcomes scales.

The inconclusive category in forensics reporting is the appropriate response in many cases, but it poses challenges in estimating an "error rate". We discuss the use of a class of information-theoretic measures related to cross entropy as an alternative set of metrics that allows for performance evaluation of results presented using multi-category reporting scales. This paper shows how this class of performance metrics, and in particular the log likelihood ratio cost, which is already in use with likelihood ratio forensic reporting methods and in machine learning communities, can be readily adapted for use with the widely used multiple category conclusions scales.

The inconclusive category, entropy, and forensic firearm identification.

There has been extensive recent discussion of the difficulty in estimating meaningful error rates in forensic firearms examinations, and other areas of pattern evidence. The 2016 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report was clear in criticizing many forensic disciplines as lacking the types of studies that would provide error rate measurements seen in other scientific fields. However, there is a substantial lack of consensus on the approach to measuring an "error rate" for fields such as forensic firearm examination that include in the conclusion scale the "inconclusive" category, as occurs in the Association of Firearm and Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions and many other such fields.

Sea Level and Socioeconomic Uncertainty Drives High-End Coastal Adaptation Costs.

Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage these risks. Representing the often deep uncertainties influencing these risks poses nontrivial challenges.

Genetic structure of dinoflagellate symbionts in coral recruits differs from that of parental or local adults.

The symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellate algae in the family Symbiodiniaceae and scleractinian corals forms the base of the tropical reef ecosystem. In scleractinian corals, recruits acquire symbionts either "vertically" from the maternal colony or initially lack symbionts and acquire them "horizontally" from the environment. Regardless of the mode of acquisition, coral species and individual colonies harbor only a subset of the highly diverse complex of species/taxa within the Symbiodiniaceae.

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO.

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO estimates no longer reflect the latest research.